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To: wyowolf
how accurate is this poll? every poll I see shows something different...

The answer is in the internals.

"Romney has solidified the GOP vote and holds a 77-point lead among Republicans. That’s slightly larger than Obama’s 72-point advantage among Democrats."

Romney has a 5 point lead in a straight matchup of Democrat vs. Republican. Every poll for the last month shows him with a 5 point or greater lead among independents. So this poll has to be heavily weighted toward Democrats.

In 2010 Republicans turnout exceeded Democrat. Polls on party affiliation this summer indicate that Republican registration is about 1 to 2 points higher than Democrat.

Put it all together and it says Republican and Democrat turnout should be about equal or slightly Republican. Romney is sitting pretty good at the moment.

In Mid-October, the pollsters will use a more balanced Democrat-Republican mix. They have to have an accurate showing to preserve their reputation. At that time Romney's real lead will show.

24 posted on 09/13/2012 7:31:00 AM PDT by CMAC51
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To: CMAC51

Ok thanks, Its funny I have been monitoring the DU sites and they all think its in the bag! which makes me a little nervous that they arent worried at least a little...

The thought of 4 more years of Zero is not a pleasant thought!


29 posted on 09/13/2012 7:50:38 AM PDT by wyowolf
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