The main point in the rassmuten poll is that “O” is back below 50%....he cannot win if that is the case!!!
Nationwide. What’s going on in the swing states is what’s important and Romney is holding his own there.
There are three sources of secret support for Romney:
The bounce hasn’t completely passed through. We can anticipate +1 for Romney when the bounce is over.
The 3 points for “other,” is basically 2 for Gary Johnson and 1 for Jill Stein. Figure at least half of these people will switch to their acceptable second choice when the rubber meets the road. That s a net + 1/2.
Finally, the undecideds will break for Romney, figure 2 3/4 to 1 1/4. That’s another +1 1/2.
So, I’m thinking it’s Romney +3. Not a strong margin. But enough to win. Well, that’s assuming no changes in the economy (the trend favors us) and we get out the vote at least as well as they do.