I agree with your analysis BUT ...
“The RNC strategy is to get a repeat of 2010.”
Can I suggest the obvious:
IF YOU WANT A REPEAT OF 2010, DO WHAT WAS DONE THERE!
They SHOULD have brought in the Tea Party energy, and other than the Rand Paul slot, Ted Cruz and maybe Rubio, they didnt have much. It wouldn’t have hurt to have Palin there, maybe not in prime time, but sometime.
More importantly, bring the themes, messages and policies from 2010 to bear. We won in 2010 because of Obamacare. They needed to make the case again as to why its bad and wrong for America.
Your assessment on why moderates broke right in 2010 is faulty. For them it was never about attractive candidates. It was about anger over the stimulus and Obamacare.