[Strategerist]

I recently completed my thesis, which was on worldwide naval proliferation.

Basically, the single most important thing I found is that one should never, EVER believe reports about Third World submarine purchases until the subs are actually built and delivered.

Countries like Thailand have supposedly bought submarines 5-6 times in the last 20 years; they still have none. Venezuela has been supposedly buying Russian KILO class submarines for the last 7 years.

You see a lot of panicky articles about some sort of out-of-control worldwide submarine proliferation; actually the total number of subs in the world isn’t rising, and the number of countries with submarines is actually going down. They’re just expensive.

The only countries in the world that actually have a growing sub fleet of any note are China, South Korea, and Vietnam.

The Egyptians desperately need to replace their Romeos (which, remarkably, have been modified to fire US Harpoon missiles) but I can’t conceive of them being able to afford new-build Type 209s; used Type 209s - possibly.

[bruinbirdman]

" the single most important thing I found is "

Propaganda is very powerful.

yitbos

[Jack Hydrazine]

Here’s a website FReepers might be interested in surfing.
http://stratrisks.com/