Eh, not sure about that this time around. I think in 2008 that would have been more of the case than in 2012. Obama being sold as some decent man of change who would be inclusive etc. Anyone opposing such a great man was of course only opposing him because he was black. I don’t think voters now feel as shy about saying he sucks and no they are not going to vote for him because he has an actual flop record to run against.
We'll see. I've read that it's harder to get conservatives to agree to participate in polls. Maybe that's one reason rats are oversampled. Posters in this forum have said that they refuse to take polls. Others give false answers. I've done that at least once.
Nobody who did NOT vote for Obama is voting for him this time. So the same base is still there against Obama.
This time we have a lot of disenfranchised voters who voted for Obama in 2008, but will not either vote for him or bother to show up to vote in 2012.
So it really is a question as to how many fewer swing supporters Obama has in addition to those disenfranchised voters who might not vote at all.
Gasoline/energy, economy, jobs, scandals and unemployed younger voters will make this much greater swing against Obama than telephone call polls down registered voters of one party or the other, IMHO. Obama’s extremely partisan agenda has made very clear he doesn’t want to appeal to the moderate Democrat vote, opening the door for the present version of the “Reagan Democrats”.
We are setting up for a massive landslide.