Isaac New Tracking Model

Wunderground Weather ^ | 8/23/2012 | Wunderground Weather

[SES1066]

According to what I saw recently, since 1852, Tampa has been ‘hit’ by 8 hurricanes. That is 8 over 160 years or a 5% chance based upon just statistics. In fairness this ignores powerful tropical storms and sideswipes that have occurred in the area.

The most famous recent event like this was Hurricane Elena in 1985 that did a loop-de-loop in the Gulf northwest of the Tampa Bay area. Although the storm did not get within 80 miles of Tampa, the area suffered 40 to 50 mph winds and a six to seven foot storm surge.

Given where the Convention is being held (on the water-front of Old Hillsborough Bay) and the fact that the state delegations are spread throughout the area, this is going to be fun! As always the northeast quadrants of any hurricane is the worst section and a storm surge pushed into Tampa Bay has no exit. The closer the storm track moving up Florida’s west coast while on the water, the larger the amount of water going in to the City of Tampa!

[SoFloFreeper]

That is too confusing. Good Lord.

Here is a better option:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[SoFloFreeper]

The 5:00 pm advisory appears to have moved the forecast SLIGHTLY to the west.

Are you guys seeing that, too?

I am thinking there is an increasing likelihood there will be no direct hit on Tampa or the Florida mainland...much to the sorrow of the liberal national media and the liberal Miami media.

Perhaps the Pensacola area will get hit on Wednesday...