DAMN THE POLLS! FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!
Can we please stop with the “oversampling” meme? There ARE more dems than repubs and the over sampling is what has always occurred. And while some polls are probably off they all still have Obumer winning and that sucks!
BS. Many of these polls are giving Dems a bigger turnout and GOP a lower turnout than in 2008, when their voter rolls were much larger than now, and their enthusiasm was high. If you think polls are not manipulated to generate a ‘close race’, and that many in the media are using their polls to push their guy, you probably should take your head out of the sand.
Romney is doing quite well and Obama is in terrible shape, way below 50 percent almost everywhere he needs to win. Obama is losing right now. Romney wins if he closes the deal. He has not yet.
BS. Many of these polls are giving Dems a bigger turnout and GOP a lower turnout than in 2008, when their voter rolls were much larger than now, and their enthusiasm was high. If you think polls are not manipulated to generate a ‘close race’, and that many in the media are using their polls to push their guy, you probably should take your head out of the sand.
Romney is doing quite well and Obama is in terrible shape, way below 50 percent almost everywhere he needs to win. Obama is losing right now. Romney wins if he closes the deal. He has not yet.
I can take any large database of information and create a report to give the results I want. The sampling is just a ruse to give a modicum of credibility to it. The other fact is that these are telephone polls and in no way has credibility to whether the person on the phone is registered one way or the other.
They are shaped to suit the needs of the customer, you know, the one paying for the result. Stupid businessmen don’t piss off their customers by giving them lemon juice when the order was for apple. The 1980 election cycle polling ought to be a stark reminder.
Not when they're fraudulently polling at '08 intensity, merely so as to save their downtickets races.
No I don't think I will stop thank you very much...or do you really think like Gallup that Carter was up 6% Oct. 24-27, 1980?
Wiki: "The Republicans gained a net of 12 seats from the Democrats, the largest swing since 1958, and gained control of the Senate, 53-46. Majority and minority leaders Robert Byrd and Howard Baker exchanged places. This marked the first time since 1954 that the Republican Party controlled one of the Houses of Congress. Without losing any seats, the Republicans took open seats in Alabama, Alaska, and Florida, and defeated nine incumbents: Herman Talmadge (D-GA), Frank Church (D-ID), Birch E. Bayh II (D-IN), John Culver (D-IA), John A. Durkin (D-NH), Robert Morgan (D-NC), 1972 presidential nominee George S. McGovern (D-SD), Warren Magnuson (D-WA), and Gaylord Nelson (D-WI). Notable new senators included future Vice-President J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN). Alfonse M. D'Amato (R-NY) defeated incumbent liberal Republican icon Jacob Javits in a primary, demonstrating the ascendancy of conservative Republicans."
The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.
Romney & Ryan are not going to take anything for granted. They’re going to campaign as if they’re 10 points behind and 0bama is 20 points ahead (which may not be far off when accounting for ‘Rat vote fraud).
If anyone wants to look at polls, here is a polling question asked by the Gipper in 1980 “are you better off now than you were four years ago?”. America answered with a resounding “NO!” and they’re going to do it again.
Yes and no. Yes, historically more people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans, but that gap is usually something like +2 to +4, depending on cultural momentum. When a poll has Dem +8 sampling and history says that actual turnout is far closer to even, then we can clearly say that Democrats are being oversampled.
In fact, we have a reverse over-sampling effect recently in Missouri -- in what is seen as an attempt to trying to encourage a wounded Akin to stay in the race, PPP's sample was Rep +9 (IIRC) in a fairly even state.
Responsible polling outfits are supposed to normalize the raw data to turnout models, and we should be seeing more of this as we get closer to the election. Of course, a lot of it depends on what turnout model is being used, and that can be argued. Historically, Rasmussen Reports tends to be the most accurate, but there's no guarantee that this will continue to be true, if their analysts wind up missing a trend.