FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 4, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

I discoverd that the maps and charts did not display last time. This is due to it being hosted by an encrypted storage site. I was using a free anonymous site in 2010, but that site has since shut down. For now, you will have to click on a link to see each chart. I apologize for the inconvenience.

This Editions's Updates:

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which gives Obama an Electoral College win if the election were held today. Obama has 275 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206, with 57 EV up for grabs. Probabilistically, Romney has a 12.75% chance of winning today.

In Michigan, Romney's result remained the same from the mid-June poll, while Obama lost 2%, leaving the race at a still strong +6 for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney gained 1% from the early June poll, while Obama gained 2%, netting a -2% move for Romney. Missouri remains strong for Romney.

In Nevada, the situation is improving. Romney gained 1% from a May poll, while Obama lost 2%. Romney reduced the gap from -8% to -5%. Nevada moves from Safe Obama to Strong Obama.

In North Carolina, Romney gained 2% from a late-June poll, while Obama polled the same as before. North Carolina moves from Leaning Romney to Strong Romney.

In Wisconsin, a big shift happened. Romney lost 1% from a mid-June poll, while Obama gained a whopping 5%. Wisconsin completely flipped from +3% Romney to +3% Obama, moving the state from Leans Romney to Leans Obama. Another poll after the primary will show whether this was an outlier or a true shift in the state which had remarkably tilted Republican in 2010.

Watch List - R Gain % (R Spread %):

• Colorado: No Poll (R +0%)
• Florida: No poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%) - not polled yet, 2008 result
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: No Poll (R +1%)
• Michigan: +2% (R -6%)
• Missouri: -1% (R +6%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: +3% (R -5%)
• New Hampshire: No Poll (R -5%)
• North Carolina: +2% (R +5%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R -2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• Virginia: No Poll (R -1%)
• Wisconsin: -6% (R -3%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 275								Romney - 206
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	18	Ohio	9	Colorado			16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	New Hampshire	10	Wisconsin	29	Florida			11	Indiana	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	6	Nevada			6	Iowa			10	Missouri	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			13	Virginia			15	North Carolina	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii											4	Idaho
20	Illinois											6	Kansas
4	Maine											8	Kentucky
10	Maryland											8	Louisiana
11	Massachusetts											6	Mississippi
10	Minnesota											3	Montana
14	New Jersey											5	Nebraska
5	New Mexico											3	North Dakota
29	New York											7	Oklahoma
7	Oregon											9	South Carolina
4	Rhode Island											3	South Dakota
3	Vermont											11	Tennessee
12	Washington											38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
201		46		28		57		0		52		154

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%

Link to Probability Chart

State Details

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has polled Florida twice so far, getting the same result of Romney ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. This week's poll has Obama losing 2% more, moving the race to 48%-42% for Obama.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here. This week's poll shows slight gains for both candidates, making the race now 50%-44% for Romney.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.

Montana (3 EV)

Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.

In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.

Nevada (6 EV)

Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. An early poll showed the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is moving in Romney's direction, although it is still strong for Obama. This week's poll has Obama winning in Nevada with 50%-45%.

Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.

in 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.

North Carolina (15 EV)

North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. In June,the race was closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%. This week's poll gained back some of Romney's loss, currently sitting at 49%-44% for Romney.

In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Ohio (18 EV)

Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama. A mid-July poll has Romney slipping and Obama gaining, flipping the lead to Obama 47%-45%.

Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead. A mid-July poll show Obama gaining back 1%, but Romney gained 3%, netting an additional 2% loss for Obama.

In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.

Virginia (13 EV)

Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far. A mid-July poll gained nothing for Obama, but Romney lost 1% from early June.

A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll showed Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama. This week's poll gives up half of those gains, flipping the state back to Obama with 49%-46%.

In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.

And in the Senate...

The race for Senate control is still see-sawing. The Republicans gain a state here and lose a state there.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 51-49 GOP take-over, with a probability of 75.39%.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Indiana, Republican Mourdock held steady from an early June poll, remaining at 42%, while Democrat Donnelly lost 2%, making this race a 42%-40% hold.

In Missouri, the polling tightened a bit as Democrat McCaskill gained 4% over the early June poll, while the leading Republican Steelman lost 2%, making this race a 49%-43% pick-up.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Casey picked up an additional 1% over Republican Smith, while Republican Smith loses 3% from an early June poll. Pennsylvania moves to a Safe Democrat hold.

In Wisconsin, we see the same extreme flip-flop from the mid-June poll as we are seeing the Presidential race. Republican Thompson fell from 52% to 41%, while Democrat Baldwin gained from 36% to 48%, indicating a Democrat hold. A new poll after the primary will sort this out.

Watch List:

• Indiana 2: +2% (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri2: -6% (R +6%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• Ohio 1: No Poll (R -6%)
• Pennsylvania 1: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: No Poll (R -1%)
• Wisconsin 2: -23% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4

Link to Senate Probability Chart

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

[beebuster2000]

after all that, how about just calling it? who wins?

[umgud]

Thank you. I will chew on this for a while, as I always do.

[EGPWS]

So does this mean that to date 0bama is the perceived tastier crap sandwich?

[1010RD]

It’s obvious that America is deeply divided. What happens after another generation is indoctrinated in government schools?

[lysie]

Thank you.

[Tennessee Nana]

Primary 2008 TN went for Huckabee Willard lost McCain won TN in Nov

Primary 2012 TN went for Sanctorum Willard lost ??? will TN win in Nov

[CPT Clay]

Wow!! Thanks for the Ping!!!!

[T. P. Pole]

Thanks for this. Regarding Wisconsin, the Walker results would indicate it might be leaning right. I would think that last poll is an outlier.

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the designations of seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/4/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

 

8/1/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold/Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)		GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)		GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[Political Junkie Too]

I think it means that, at this point, Romney's passivity towards Obama is showing.

Romney is probably thinking that Obama will turn off voters by himself, and that Romney can ride it out until the convention, and then attack during the debates. I'm afraid that Romney might fall too far behind because he will underestimate the ruthlessness of Obama's team.

Romney needs to make Obama the story now, not let Obama make Romney the story with innuendos, lies, and mis-reporting the news.

-PJ

[Pollster1]

In summary, according to Rasmussen’s turnout model, Romney has no “leaning” states that he needs to defend. He has to take at least one of the Obama-leaning states plus all of the tossups.

Leaning Obama:
Ohio - 18
Wisconsin - 10

Toss ups:
Colorado - 9
Florida - 29
Iowa - 6
Virginia - 13

The campaign will change a few positions, but the big issue is turnout. Particularly since turnout will decide several competitive Senate races, we need to get every possible conservative voter to the polls. Freepers can make that happen, and we need to do it this year.

[Political Junkie Too]

Let's take a look at the sensitivity of this polling to bias. Note that these next numbers are the absolute win-lose. The main Electoral College breakdown treats the +/- 1% races as Toss-up.

If we take a look at the impact of bias in the polling, a -1% shift in Obama's poll results and a +1% shift in Romney's changes the race from Obama 288, Romney 241, and 9 Toss-up, to Romney 263, Obama 257, and 18 Toss-up. This makes the expected value 270.29 Electoral Votes, and the probability of Romney winning higher, at 50.62%.

If we make the bias an uncertainty with a minimum of no bias, a maximum of 2.5%, and a likely of 1%, then the expected Electoral vote becomes 273.77, and probability of Romney winning becomes 56.36%.

We've seen some outrageous polling in the past week, but Rasmussen has been generally regarded as the most accurate. Still, it's good to see the spread in results based on potential over-estimation of the Democrat vote.

-PJ

[Qbert]

"Romney needs to make Obama the story now, not let Obama make Romney the story with innuendos, lies, and mis-reporting the news."

Agree.

And he hasn't done very much to distinguish himself from Obama- it should be easy, really: Obama is the most leftwing president our country has seen in modern times. The whole argument behind Romney being the nominee- to the Establishment at least- was that he would appeal to moderate voters (and that was what Axelrude & Co. feared in him the most).

But if Romney wants to be the guy in the "middle", simple being passive and neutral is not the way to convince most people (if it was, he would be way ahead by now). Instead, he needs to point out how far Obama is trying to push this country to the left with his policies- against its will. If Obama is viewed as the candidate who is way too far to the left (which of course he is), there's only one place for voters to go...

[Political Junkie Too]

See the post after yours for the impacts of shifting the results by 0% to 2.5% towards Romney.

To be precise, Romney has two +1% leaners in Florida and Iowa, which equate to roughly a 60%-40% probability of the leader winning. Obama has Virginia at +1%, too. I'm putting these states into the Toss-up category, although their actual probabilities are used for the expected value calculations.

For comparison, a +2% lead equates to roughly a 70%-30% probability of the leader winning, which is a more likely lean. These also depend on the poll's margin of error for each state.

For my Electoral College Balance chart, if the probability of the leader winning is between 50%-60%, I'm calling it a Toss-up. If it is roughly between 60% and 80%, it's Lean. If it's between 80% and 99%, it's Strong. If it's 100%, it's Safe.

Colorado is the only true Toss-up at a 45% tie.

-PJ

[P.O.E.]

Thought you might be interested in this map too.

at the bottom of the post is a link to a zoomable map of the 2010 house election results.

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks.

Randita and Interceptpoint did a similar analysis in 2010. I produced charts from their data for them. We didn't have the prestige of Nate Silver at the New York Times, but we tracked pretty closesly with him.

Their website was called Key House Races 2010. Sadly, the hosting site for my maps is no longer available.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

I might as well repost here my prediction of what Obama will do to control the momentum against Romney.

The MSM tried to sucker Romney into announcing his VP choice early in order to give Obama new talking points. So far, it didn't work. The sooner that Romney announces, the sooner he will lose control of the news.

Romney will wait until after the Olympics to announce. If he's smart, he'll wait until the convention to announce in order to keep the Democrats from trying to control the messaging from Romney.

Since Democrats have their convention after Republicans, Obama will steal the momentum from Romney by announcing at the convention that he is replacing Biden with someone else.

The MSM will do their part from this point.

One tantalizing tidbit is that Obama has given the Wednesday night VP speech slot to Bill Clinton, not Joe Biden. Reportedly, Clinton will be the one to formally place Obama's name into nomination. Could it also be the plan for Bill to announce that his wife will take Biden's place on the ticket?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

What happens after another generation is indoctrinated in government schools?

I'm starting to become less concerned about the indoctrination aspect of public schools, and am becoming more concerned about the lack of basic skills being taught in the schools today. It's as if the "3 R's" have been pushed to homework to make room for the alternate lifestyle, anti-religious (except Islam), tree-hugging, no borders, class-envy, self-esteeming indoctrination going on today.

Yes, the schools will produce drones who will pull the lever for Democrats, but what happens when those drones can't make change for a dollar, or can't graduate from college, or can't compete for jobs in the global marketplace?

That's what I fear.

-PJ