Given that (i) Romney has polled very competitively in VA throughout, (ii) the only VA poll in which Goode is at 9% was done by the Democrat PPP firm so as to prop up Obama’s candidacy, and (iii) Goode has not qualified for the ballot in VA, and qualifying for the ballot is famously difficult to do (10,000 signatures, at least 400 from each congressional district, and out-of-state petition workers are forbidden), it is risible that Romney would even consider writing off VA.
Romney does need VA, which, after adding NC, OH and FL (IN is in the bag), puts him at 266, needing only one more state (whether IA, CO, NV, WI, NH, or whatever) to win. You are correct that Romney needs a conservative to carry VA, but that’s also true for OH, NC and FL. I would also posit that picking a Protestant would help him a lot more with the Evangelical voters from whom he needs a large turnout than if he picked a Catholic. Frankly, I’m more concerned about OH than I am about VA, and believe that Romney should pick Rob Portman as his runningmate.
BUT, in Virginia you will also likely get the Senate seat as well.