WI: Hovde on the rise as GOP Senate race tightens in latest state polls

The GOP Senate race has tightened since last month with former governor Tommy Thompson and wealthy businessman Eric Hovde the top contenders in a four-man field, according to a poll released Wednesday by Marquette Law School.

Thompson led Hovde 35% to 23% among likely Republican primary voters in the survey, followed by former congressman Mark Neumann at 10% and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 6%.

A separate survey released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling found the Republican race even closer, with Hovde on top at 31%, Thompson at 29%, Neumann at 15% and Fitzgerald at 9%.

Both surveys found Hovde on the rise, and both suggest that his domination of the Wisconsin air waves in recent months has reshuffled the GOP Senate contest, propelling the first-time candidate from political anonymity to a legitimate contender for the nomination.

In Marquette’s polling, support for Hovde rose from 14% in mid-June to 23% in early July, while Thompson’s support rose by one percentage point, Neumann’s fell by six percentage points, and Fitzgerald's fell by four percentage points.

A community banker and hedge fund manager, Hovde has spent more than $4 million on TV and radio so far, according to sources in both parties who are tracking ad spending.

Thompson has spent a few hundred thousand dollars. Neumann just went on the air for the first time Monday. Fitzgerald has not aired TV ads.

That is generally up for debate :)

Thompson - RINO Insider but is beating Baldwin - D by over 20%
Hoevde - Running a Ron Johnson style campaign, not a politician, but has been dealing with carpetbagger accusations
Neumann - has a stong following, but not exactly a favorite with crap he pulled against Walker in the Gov primary
Fitzgerald - worked closely with Walker on last years fantastic legislative sessions...probably the “best” conservative, but no money.

I expect all could beat Baldwin, but Tommy is the only one that likely would not need RNC support.

They’re all good guys and I think any one of them can beat Tammy Baldwin.

My 2 cents:

Fitzgerald is my first choice but he doesn’t have a chance, no $$. I voted for him (absentee today) and even have a yard sign out.

Neumann, nice guy, true conservative, but he blew it with Wisconsin conservatives with his nasty attacks against Scott Walker during the primary.

Tommy Thompson, rino and too dang old, we need someone in that seat for a long time.

Hovde, he’s a Ron Johnson wannabe but I don’t trust his sincerity. I think he just wants to buy a senate seat. I may be totally wrong about that but he smells wrong to me.

What I wanna know about Hovde is in regard to contributions/efforts that he made for the GOP or conservative causes like the Tea Party before he ran?

Apparently the answer is NADA.

I’ve heard him speak in person about three or four times. He talks too long(less is more, Eric)and I am suspicious of his motives.

But I would love to see Tommy defeated and will support Hovde if he wins the primary.

PS the TV ad with the daughters was God awful.

Just thought I'd flesh out your descriptions a wee bit.

Thompson - age 70 (looks much older); 4 term former governor; HHS Secretary under Bush 43; "father" of school choice & welfare reform in Wisconsin; big government spender

Hoevde - age 48 (looks much younger); community bank and hedge fund manager; not a politician; self-funded campaign; like Thompson, a recent Wisconsin returnee from Washington DC

Neumann - age 58; 2 term US Congressman; narrowly lost 1998 Senate race; lost congressional races in 1992 & 1993; chose NOT to run for US Senate in 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2010 despite heavy GOP pressure to run; ran highly disreputable 2010 primary race for governor versus Scott Walker (threatened to run 3rd party race after his GOP primary defeat appeared likely); former math instructor & homebuilder; Neumann's copmanies hypocritically benefitted from federal "green energy" grants despite Neumann's personal opposition to that type of government waste

Fitzgerald - age 45; current Speaker of Wisconsin Assembly; (leaving seat to run for US Senate); served six 2-year terms in Assembly (elected twice unopposed); largely unknown to voters outside of his rural district; shepherded Governor Walker's 2011 reform programs through the Assembly; brother of GOP Senate Leader Scott Fitzgerald

As you can probably tell from my descriptions, I'm more partial to Hoevde & Fitzgerald. Thompson is too old and too RINO-y and I don't trust Neumann. I don't think Fitzgerald can win. Fitzy should have run for the US House against 16-term RINO Tom Petri or remained in the Assembly and waited until the old buzzard died.

Hoevde has benefited from spending $4 million of his own dollars in introductory radio & TV ads. No one has remarked on this so far, but I think that in addition to heavy saturation, Hoevde's ads have great messaging. I think he was very smart to have a series of radio ads praising Scott Walker during the recent recall campaigns.

While Hoevde was merely endorsing Walker and conservatism in those radio ads, the ads have had the effect of leading the audience to believe that Walker and conservatism is endorsing Hoevde.

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