[dvwjr]

Originally posted by: LS

"Look at the historical numbers when the loser got 43% of the vote."

Alway glad to provide some data. Here are the Presidential elections sorted (in acending order) by the "Popular Vote" percentage of the major party losing candidate.

"Popular" Vote				Winning Percentage			Losing Percentage
Victory Margin	Year	Party	Winner	Electoral Vote	"Popular" Vote		Electoral Vote	"Popular" Vote	Loser	Party
21.72%	1860	Republican	Lincoln	59.40%	39.82%		23.80%	18.10%	Breckenridge	S.Democrat (D)
14.44%	1912	Democrat	Wilson	81.92%	41.84%		16.57%	27.40%	Roosevelt(26)	Progressive (R)
25.22%	1924	Republican	Coolidge	71.94%	54.04%		25.61%	28.82%	Davis	Democrat
12.17%	1856	Democrat	Buchanan	58.80%	45.28%		38.50%	33.11%	Freemont	Republican
26.17%	1920	Republican	Harding	76.08%	60.32%		23.92%	34.15%	Cox	Democrat
24.25%	1936	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	98.49%	60.80%		1.51%	36.55%	Landon	Republican
14.20%	1836	Democrat	Van Buren	57.80%	50.83%		24.80%	36.63%	Harrison(9)	Whig
16.81%	1832	Democrat	Jackson	76.00%	54.23%		17.00%	37.42%	Clay	Nat-Reps
5.56%	1992	Democrat	Clinton	68.77%	43.01%		31.23%	37.45%	Bush(41)	Republican
23.15%	1972	Republican	Nixon	96.65%	60.67%		3.16%	37.52%	McGovern	Democrat
18.83%	1904	Republican	Roosevelt(26)	70.59%	56.42%		29.41%	37.59%	Parker	Democrat
22.58%	1964	Democrat	Johnson(36)	90.33%	61.05%		9.67%	38.47%	Goldwater	Republican
17.76%	1932	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	88.89%	57.41%		11.11%	39.65%	Hoover(31)	Republican
18.21%	1984	Republican	Reagan	97.58%	58.77%		2.42%	40.56%	Mondale	Democrat
8.51%	1996	Democrat	Clinton	70.45%	49.23%		29.55%	40.72%	Dole	Republican
17.41%	1928	Republican	Hoover	83.62%	58.21%		16.38%	40.80%	Smith	Democrat
9.74%	1980	Republican	Reagan	90.89%	50.75%		9.11%	41.01%	Carter(39)	Democrat
-10.43%	1824	Dem-Reps	Adams(6)	32.20%	30.92%		37.90%	41.35%	Jackson(7)	Dem-Reps
15.40%	1956	Republican	Eisenhower	86.06%	57.37%		13.75%	41.97%	Stevenson	Democrat
4.79%	1848	Whig	Taylor	56.20%	47.28%		43.80%	42.49%	Cass	Democrat
0.70%	1968	Republican	Nixon	55.95%	43.42%		35.50%	42.72%	Humphrey	Democrat
3.01%	1892	Democrat	Cleveland(24)	62.39%	46.02%		32.66%	43.01%	Harrison(23)	Republican
8.53%	1908	Republican	Taft	66.46%	51.57%		33.54%	43.04%	Bryan	Democrat
12.34%	1828	Democrat	Jackson	68.20%	55.97%		31.80%	43.63%	Adams(6)	Nat-Reps
11.80%	1872	Republican	Grant	78.10%	55.63%		18.00%	43.83%	Greeley	Democrat
6.97%	1852	Democrat	Pierce	85.80%	50.84%		14.20%	43.87%	Scott	Whig
10.85%	1952	Republican	Eisenhower	83.24%	55.18%		16.76%	44.33%	Stevenson	Democrat
9.96%	1940	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	84.56%	54.74%		15.44%	44.78%	Willkie	Republican
10.06%	1864	Republican	Lincoln	90.60%	55.02%		9.00%	44.96%	McClellan	Democrat
4.48%	1948	Democrat	Truman	57.06%	49.55%		35.59%	45.07%	Dewey	Republican
6.12%	1900	Republican	McKinley	65.32%	51.64%		34.68%	45.52%	Bryan	Democrat
7.27%	2008	Democrat	Obama	67.80%	52.87%		32.20%	45.60%	McCain	Republican
7.72%	1988	Republican	Bush(41)	79.18%	53.37%		20.63%	45.65%	Dukakis	Democrat
7.50%	1944	Democrat	Roosevelt(32)	81.36%	53.39%		18.64%	45.89%	Dewey	Republican
3.12%	1916	Democrat	Wilson	52.17%	49.24%		47.83%	46.12%	Hughes	Republican
4.33%	1896	Republican	McKinley	60.63%	51.03%		39.37%	46.70%	Bryan	Democrat
6.07%	1840	Whig	Harrison(9)	79.60%	52.88%		20.40%	46.81%	Van Buren(8)	Democrat
5.32%	1868	Republican	Grant	72.80%	52.66%		27.20%	47.34%	Seymour	Democrat
2.06%	1976	Democrat	Carter	55.20%	50.08%		44.61%	48.02%	Ford(38)	Republican
1.46%	1844	Democrat	Polk	61.80%	49.54%		38.20%	48.08%	Clay	Whig
0.02%	1880	Republican	Garfield	58.00%	48.27%		42.00%	48.25%	Hancock	Democrat
0.25%	1884	Democrat	Cleveland(22)	54.60%	48.50%		45.40%	48.25%	Blaine	Republican
2.46%	2004	Republican	Bush(43)	53.20%	50.73%		46.70%	48.27%	Kerry	Democrat
-0.51%	2000	Republican	Bush(43)	50.37%	47.87%		49.44%	48.38%	Gore	Democrat
-0.80%	1888	Republican	Harrison(23)	58.10%	47.82%		41.90%	48.62%	Cleveland(22,24)	Democrat
0.17%	1960	Democrat	Kennedy	56.42%	49.72%		40.78%	49.55%	Nixon(37)	Republican
-3.02%	1876	Republican	Hayes	50.10%	47.95%		49.90%	50.97%	Tilden	Democrat
No Popular Vote	1789	No Party	Washington	85.20%	n/a		42.00%	n/a	Adams(2)	No Party
No Popular Vote	1792	No Party	Washington	97.80%	n/a		57.00%	n/a	Adams(2)	No Party
No Popular Vote	1796	Federalist	Adams(2)	51.40%	n/a		49.30%	n/a	Jefferson(3)	Dem-Reps
No Popular Vote	1800	Dem-Reps	Jefferson	52.90%	n/a		52.90%	n/a	Burr	Dem-Reps
No Popular Vote	1804	Dem-Reps	Jefferson	92.00%	n/a		8.00%	n/a	Pinckney	Federalist
No Popular Vote	1808	Dem-Reps	Madison	69.30%	n/a		26.70%	n/a	Pinckney	Federalist
No Popular Vote	1812	Dem-Reps	Madison	58.70%	n/a		40.80%	n/a	D.Clinton	Federalist
No Popular Vote	1816	Dem-Reps	Monroe	82.80%	n/a		15.40%	n/a	King	Federalist
No Popular Vote	1820	Dem-Reps	Monroe	98.30%	n/a		0.00%	n/a	NONE	NONE

Hope this helps,

dvwjr /nobr

[LS]

Pulled a few of these out—Some, like Lincoln (four candidates), Wilson (three major candidates), and even Humphrey (three)—are badly skewed by third party candidates, which we do not have this time around. Still, the numbers are telling:

Dukakis had 45 and came in about where McCain did; Mondale was blown out at 40% as was Dole, Carter, Stevenson, Humphrey, then Stevenson lost another landslide at 44% as did Wilkie.

Translation (or at least what I make of these numbers): someone at 43% doesn’t stand a hope in hell of suddenly attracting 8% of the vote, while the other guy stands a really good chance of getting close to 55-56%, which is, indeed, a landslide.