I really don't think doctrinaire leftists or professional criminals think that way ~ they assume they can steal back any losses they personally might incur.
Obama still has his 69 million votes as far as those polls go.
40+% will vote for Obama...he's their sugar daddy, and they're voting their self interest. The Mittster has to give the average voter a real reason to vote for him, and it can't simply be because he's not Obama.
I'm still holding out hope that it will turn out like 1980, i.e. the turn of sentiment in the weekend before the election.
That's when the average voter asks themselves, "does the incumbent deserve another four years?"