Actually, the surface combat fleet development is not leisurely. As I said, they have increased the sizee of their fleet by 142%...that is not simply replacing what they had.
They are planning on having three carriers by 2020...so that is not a leisurely pace either.
I’ve been watching, researching, and studying this for the last 10-12 years. It is of concern to our Naval planners and that is why they have convinced Obama (or any other prsident) to shift US Naval forces even more heavily to the Pacific.
As to Subs, the Chinese are increasing rapidly there too. Their new Jun and now Qing classes are AIP SS boats that are better than the Kilos they bought from Russia. They have produced a new SSN that is arguably very close to our Improved LA Class, and are produicing new SSBNs that are far better than their single Xia unit of past years.
The SS boats will be deployed in the litorals and at choke points within the 1st two island chains and will represent a significant threat in any close or restricted waters. Their new SSNs will range out further, but they have a long way to go there in numbers and quieting before those boats are any kind of serious match for the Sea Wolfs (3) or the new Virginia Class (now 9) that we have.
Until then the Improved LA Class, which is at least as good if not better than these new Chinese boats, will hold the vast weight of any confrontation and will fair very well out in the blue water.
I disagree with the surface fleet. PLA so far is replacing older destroyers and frigates with new ones. Same with the sub fleet. However on amphibious ships and introducing a carrier is the new area for the PLA. It is still a leisurely pace because China does not have any pressing wars to fight or enemies to contain. One of the major problem China has is experience with new technologies. It is a conveyor belt effect. By the time China can replace all her warships and subs built before 1970’s, she has to start introducing next generation of warships. It is a never ending process for any nation that wants to build a blue sea navy of any size and prominence. But China can afford to sit back a bit because unlike the US she has no pressing enemies to contain or wars to fight. In the next ten years China will spend it building up the technical skills and experience of her sailors and officers. Only 1/3 of the PLA navy is consider modern ships and subs. Ten years from now when she finally retires the older ships and have crews that spend time gaining experience on modern ones, then it becomes interesting on what the PLA plans to do.
If China wants a credible carrier force, a medium tonnage jump carrier is not it. China will need at least four Nimitz size carriers to create a budding challenge to US navy. Right now her ship yards can build large oil tankers, it is capable of building a 90000 ton plus carrier. To get to that level she will need years to develop operational experience. She can copy an American carrier via stolen blueprints, but the US navy does not provide operational notes with it. That has to be developed with thousands of hours of flying time in all weather conditions. China has the time, while the US is on borrowed time due to her huge gov and corporate debt.
Look up www.firepower.com. PLA defense budget is a distant third after the US. But China’s strength is financial. The entire US foreign exchange/reserve is 150 trillion. China as 2600 trillion. If China is going to challenge us, it will most likely be economic and financial.