Its funny. when his supporters were pandering to my liberal sister, they told her that they didn't care if she was a democrat as long as she was willing to help defeat Santorum's anti woman, anti choice agenda.
Posted on 06/13/2012 9:40:16 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For much of the presidential campaign, President Obama’s top strategists have outlined their numerous paths to 270 electoral votes: win Florida, sweep the Southwest, or pick off a Southern state or two. But they didn’t prepare for the possibility that working-class white voters in the Rust Belt could abandon the president en masse, throwing his well-laid plans into disarray.
With the economy struggling to pick up steam, three must-win “blue-wall” states are looking increasingly winnable for the Romney campaign: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Both election results (from the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall) and reputable polling show that all three states are shaping up to be highly competitive, and that both campaigns will be devoting significant resources there.
Three new polls underscore why Team Obama has reason to be concerned about their standing in the Rust Belt. An EPIC/MRA poll of Michigan registered voters released last week shows Romney leading Obama, 46 to 45 percent, with only 41 percent viewing the president favorably. In Pennsylvania, a newly-released Quinnipiac poll shows Obama with a 46 percent job-approval rating—in the danger zone for a sitting president—and leading Romney 46 percent to 40 percent. And in Wisconsin, exit polls conducted for the gubernatorial race showed Obama with a 51 percent to 45 percent lead, too close for comfort in a must-win blue-wall state.
Let’s take them one at a time. Michigan at first glance seems like one of the unlikelier battlegrounds, given that it’s ground zero for the American auto industry, which Obama helped rescue with his auto bailout. Republican strategists concede that Obama holds a political advantage on the bailout itself, but believe that on the broader view of government spending and intervening in the private economy, they hold an equally sizable advantage—and can message it to a draw.
Even with the auto industry on the mend, blue-collar voters are facing the growing reality of reduced wages and benefits—working longer hours for less money. There aren’t many states where that’s more salient than in Michigan. Macomb County was home base for Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s seminal 1985 analysis of Reagan Democrats, which concluded that they were leaving the Democratic fold over cultural issues. Democrats have made significant inroads since then—Obama won the county 53 to 45 percent in 2008—but the sentiments of working-class whites are changing due to the weak economy.
“They know we are in a new normal where life is a struggle—and convincing them that things are good enough for those who have found jobs is a fool’s errand,” wrote Democratic strategists Greenberg and James Carville this week, assessing the results of their focus group among working-class voters in Columbus, Ohio. “They want to know the plans for making things better in a serious way—not just focusing on finishing up the work of the recovery.”
Those sentiments translate to Pennsylvania, a blue-collar state where Obama underperformed in 2008 relative to his national gains. The crosstabs of the Quinnipiac poll showed that the economy is taking a toll on the president: 49 percent of Pennsylvania voters believed Romney would do a better job on the economy, compared to 41 percent who sided with Obama. Among independents, Romney holds a 17-point lead over Obama in economic stewardship. This in a state where Romney’s favorable ratings are underwater (35 percent favorable/42 percent unfavorable).
“I think it is definitely in play," former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said at a Bloomberg News roundtable last week. "I said from the beginning, Mitt Romney is the only candidate who had a chance to do well enough in the Philadelphia suburbs to carry the state.” And in Wisconsin, Obama is holding a lead but there are several telltale signs that suggest the presidential race will be close come November. In the recall election, non-college-educated whites flocked to Gov. Scott Walker’s camp in droves, giving him 61 percent of the gubernatorial vote—an improvement on his 2010 performance. Meanwhile, the turnout for Walker in the Republican-heavy Milwaukee suburbs was astronomical; he won more than 70 percent of the vote in Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties.
The combination of white-hot Republican enthusiasm combined with Democratic struggles to win over the working class ensures that Wisconsin will be a battleground. In the wake of the recall, Romney’s campaign is moving resources into the state, and Obama’s campaign manager Jim Messina publicly ranked it as a toss-up for November in a video to supporters. Romney is expected to perform as strongly as Walker with the Republican suburbanites; his big challenge is to maintain Walker’s sizable edge with the working-class voters as well.
It’s no coincidence that Mitt Romney’s “Every Town Counts” bus tour, which kicks off on Friday, is focused on winning over working-class whites, hitting the blue-wall battlegrounds along with three other blue-collar bastions: Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Romney, despite his privileged pedigree, knows that winning over the working-class voters dissatisfied with Obama’s record on the economy is a prerequisite for winning the election. Given the attention paid to the Hispanic boomlet making the Southwest friendlier turf for Democrats, it’s easy to forget that the Rust Belt battlegrounds are heading in the opposite direction. The Rust Belt states are also the bigger electoral prize: There are 20 electoral votes combined in the states of Nevada (6), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5), but 46 electoral votes in Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), and Pennsylvania (20).
Obama’s team expected that the historic Democratic tilt of those states would keep them in its column. But the slow-growing economy is putting them squarely in play, one of the biggest reasons why Obama’s reelection now looks in jeopardy.
If Romney wins, he should thank Obama.
Personally I don’t intend to vote for either bottom feeding scumbag.
Romney has the same values as Obama: RomneyCARE,
socialized medicine, TARP, Taxes, Sharia,
Global Warming.
Turnout for the GOP will be a fraction of what it
could have been, if the GOPe forces RINO Mr. RomneyCARE
on America.
The bailout saved the auto industry?
Obama “saved” the auto industry and now they are building a plant in China. Not looking so good for the future of American union jobs. Hopefully the “rust belt” is wising up. Sick liberals like Obama don’t like their dirty jobs.
Romney isn’t going to win any of those three, but it will be nice to make Mommy’s Little Man have to fight for them.
I would bet on 2 of the 3 but that said, Obama has way to much territory to defend to win.
You carefully say "fraction of what it could have been," because no one can prove that. Care to wager on the fact that GOP turnout will be higher than in 08?
The strongest candidate was and is Romney - proof being he won the primaries and he has been running for President for several years, without the distraction of being in office and therby subject to sniping (e.g. Palin as VP candidate had to deal with being Governor, Rubio is in Senate, Ron Paul in House - of course Newt and Santorum were free to campaign but they lacked the “umph”, money and support (Rick) or had too much baggage (Newt). So Mitt is the strongest opponent vs Bambi. Conservatives have to keep the heat on him and make sure we elect Tea Party folks to Senate and House to keep him in line. Pelosi & Reid kept Bambi in line for 2 years -He did what THEY wanted. He did not have a clue, and still doesn’t.
Romney is already leading in WI from the latest Rasmussen poll.
So the spam-a-lots can pollute the threads with their anti-Romney rantings all day long and it won't change a damn thing. Romney is going to be the GOP nominee. Further, he is likely to win and thus will pretty much be our candidate in 2016 as well. I know there is talk of finding somebody more conservative to knock him off the ticket in 2016 - well, good luck with that. If it happens, it will be like the first time...ever.
I was sick to my stomach when Palin decided not to run last year and I was pretty depressed about our prospects up until a month or so again.
I must say that I have been very impressed with the Romney campaign so far. Granted we still have a long way to go but they are doing all the right things and so far, nothing stupid. They have actually been out-raising the Obama machine (who would have thought?) recently and are gaining ground in all the battleground states.
It is already apparent this run will not be another McCain or Dole redux. There is a desire and a determination by the Romney campaign to win this thing. Adults and professionals appear to be in charge. All good signs.
The biggest issue for Obama is that all those young voters are not going to be motivated.
Some that still kind of support him might not vote at all.
Some who do vote won’t try to campaign and work the streets like last time.
Some who do some work might not do it as hard or with as much passion.
Same with the voters who only vote race. And if Romney picks Rubio, that will add another complicated layer for team Obama. I’m not saying that is the right choice, but it would definitely throw things up in the air demographically a bit.
Whereas the frustration with Obama is going to allow people to overlook the things they don’t like about Romney.
I hope Romney doesn’t get suckered into wasting resources in Pennsylvania. This state, with it’s electoral fraud in Philly, is pretty much a losing proposition.
He will certainly win WIsconsin, and frankly I think MI and PA as well.
Obama will certainly lose the following states he won in 2012:
WI, IA, OH, IN, NC, SC, FL, NH
I truly believe he will win PA and MI as well.. the rust belt is lost to him. He’s completely alienated the blue dog democrats and he can’t make up their disenfranchisement from other groups. This is going to cost him the south and the rust belt... all but IL and MN.
The blue dog voter is a socially conservative, democrat. They are struggling to make ends meet, while Obama is focusing on things like gay marriage and attacking the Catholic Church... He’s toast.
The Rust Belt and South are lost to him, VA would be the only possible exception in the south, and IL and MN are only exceptions in rustbelt.
For all those ABO types— read this:
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/838-the-lesser-of-two-evils-con-game
Regardless of who wins, America loses!
Well said
All true. More important, Mitt has shown (so far-—always a qualifier) that he is no McLame and is running rings around Obama. Honestly, if these polls are this bad for Obama now, barring a total Mitt-down, it should be close to landslide territory in the fall. But anything can happen.
I agree with you on IA, OH, IN, NC, SC, and FL, and I hope you are right on the others. I’ll admit that my hopes are trying to rise, despite my best efforts. I think VA goes red this time.
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