That makes sense (I mean your analysis, not the behavior of the unions). When the collective bargaining reform was passed in Wisconsin, some school districts jumped into new contracts before the law went into effect. Those tend to be the districts that have had to make cuts, including layoffs, since then.
Yup...the fact the union is asking for a 30 % increase over two years is probably a clue the unions know the jig is up...
Change will come whether or not they like it