“The precedent for assuming that Obama can win is that Roosevelt, who had progressively worse economic records, won THREE MORE TIMES!!!”
Not really true, the economy grew under Roosevelt’s first term, going from the depths of the depression and 25% unemployment to merely a rotten economy.
“We are running a guy who has yet to prove he can hold the Republican base.”
Polls are already showing that to be untrue.
“That’s why we need to operate under the assumption that Obama has to lose 15% of the vote he had last time, has to lose 15% of the vote he had last time,”
Which he will. Just a portion of the 25 million long-term unemployed and he is toast.
Roosevelt had more than one recession. I know folks who lived through the Great Depression and it was more than a rotten economy.