He may not have a ‘strong’ chance, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility, imo.
The voters obama has a lock on are: the blacks, those who depend on taxpayer transfer payments (like welfare and food stamps), those who benefit from crony capitalism, like GE, the abortion advocates, those plagued with perpetual white guilt , illegals, and liberals in general.
Of course there's voter fraud and intimidation that nobody seems to be able to do much about, and the all-important kneepad MSM, who will lie, cheat, steal, and whatever else they have to do to keep obama around for another four.
My main point is that it's not unreasonable to think obama has a shot, even though his presidency has been a colossal disaster.
It's more than reasonable to believe Obama can win again ~ he beat us last time with 10 million votes. Let's say this time he loses 9,999,999 votes ~ he still wins eh!
The details are not that important ~ we have been winning fewer votes each recent election.
The chances for our candidate to get beaten like a used rug are incredibly high.
Our would-be political masters in the GOP-e FORGOT history.
I think the most relevant campaign to compare to is 1940. The Republican party tapped Willkie, a lawyer and utilities executive, to run against FDR in 1940, even though Willkie was a former Democrat (see http://www.gwu.edu/~erpapers/teachinger/glossary/willkie-wendell.cfm )