You are correct. Even if the USN lost all 3 carriers at Midway and the Japs lost none, the outcome would still be the same. By 1 July 1944 we would have 10 Essex class, 9 Independence class and 50 Casablanca class carriers in commission. The Japanese were doomed even if we had a terrible defeat at Midway.
It is kind of amazing, when you think of it. The Japs had years to prepare, train their forces, and plan their initial and follow on attacks. The US was basically caught unaware and not really on a war footing.
Yet, within a few months, the US had organized itself to build the mobile strike forces (carriers), the air forces (B-29's and long range fighters) and the ultimate atomic weapons that would win the war. The training, tactics and logistics involved were figured out and implemented. Meanwhile the Japs were spreading their forces thinly all across the Pacific. Training, logistics, and a strategy to actually defeat the US were sorely lacking.
VDH writes about the "western way of war" and how western nations, from ancient Greece to now, are better able to organize their societies to destroy their enemies. I don't think anything has changed.
Do you think that if things had gone very badly at Midway that there may have started a “peace with Japan” movement in late 1942?