Obama looks to be in the mid 40s. Not a good place to be for a candidate with no record to run on. The campaign against him has not even begun in earnest. Can he win? Yes. Will he? Unlikely. My only concern is the electoral votes in the midwest. If Obama concentrates all his money on Ohio, can he win it by a hair. That is a distinct possibility.
I’m from Ohio, and EVERY election in Ohio depends on voter turnout from the northeast of the state versus the south/southwest of the state.
If Cleveland turns out big, it is always a cliffhanger.
Obama might have hurt himself with black ministers with the gay marriage thing, but in final analysis, I don’t expect blacks to desert him.
Now initially on point you've surmised their strategy because, well, that's what they've said their strategy is -- the Kerry '04 map -- which leads to Ohio as the must-have.
But pinning their hopes there will get Bobo beat because it will come at the expense of losing IA and/or WI and/or some combo of the Intermountain West.
But to stick with the original idea, with the Southeast in hand and with just those 2 Rust Belt flips, Mittens could still lose OH, CO, and NM and still win.
But we all know wherever FL and VA go, that's where OH will go too.
I think Axelrot will eventually relent to Messina and realize Bobo has to focus completely on retaining IA & WI and the entirety of the Rust Belt, and still find a way to keep NV, CO, NM, because he's going to lose the Southeast (FL, VA, NC, et al) and OH.
What looks like the Battle for Ohio on the surface is really a fight for the Intermountain West. And oops, that's Mormon country.