Tropical Storm Alberto: Early Start to Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | May 21, 2012

[topher]

ALBERTO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF ALBERTO. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THIS...ALONG WITH DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 090/6. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE SMALL CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.

[topher]

Something to watch as it moves up East Coast. Does not appear to be a threat to land, and will probably just dissipate shortly...

[Conan the Librarian]

It was welcome down here in South Georgia. We need the rain right now!

[topher]

My mother is Texas (as well as others in Texas) would welcome a Tropical Storm dumping rain on Texas.

She is can only turn on the sprinklers for the lawn once a week.

Parts of Texas still need some good rainfalls, though Houston/Beaumont and other parts have gotten some healthy rains in the past 60 days...