The question is really whether the piper who must be paid will get his tribute before or after the election. If the reckoning can be postponed past November, Obama has a chance. If it comes after Romney's election, will he get the blame, Pro hoc Proctor Hoc? I don't know what constitutes your definition of reckoning, but if things continue as is, Obama won't be reelected. And the trend line is that they will get progressively worse. You are spot on about the global economy. China will not be able to bail out the global economy like it did in 2008. And Japan, the EU, and the US have stalled economies with Japan and the EU heading into a double dip recession.
By "reckoning" I mean the economic consequences of the fiscal profligacy and regulatory jihad being waged against America by the Obama administration together with the excesses born of Keynesian economic theory around the world. At minimum or as a threshold, I would consider a "reckoning" to be a recession under the classic definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth but I would expect the retraction to be far more severe than that.
With more severe economic consequences, one would expect to see social disruption and even violence.
I am not one who believes that the world will learn lessons from suffering the consequences of our own profligacy, that is, our own indulgence in soft socialism. Therefore, I am not sanguine that the political implications of a reckoning are favorable to conservatism or to democracy.
You and I are on the same wavelength considering the world economy and the consequences for Obama's reelection hopes.
