Don't think I can agree with you there. Obama (or any Democrat) is automatically going to get 40-45% of the vote no matter who the GOP puts up. There was only one time in modern history a Democrat got less than 40%. You have to go back to the 1972 Nixon landslide to the last time the Dems has less than 40% of the popular vote (37.52% for McGovern).
Here is the Democratic popular vote since:
1976 - 48.02% (Carter)
1980 - 41.01% (Carter)
1984 - 40.56% (Mondale)
1988 - 45.65% (Dukakis)
1992 - 43.01% (Clinton)
1996 - 49.23% (Clinton)
2000 - 48.38% (Gore)
2004 - 48.27% (Kerry)
2008 - 52.87% (Obama)
So visions of a 65-35 GOP cakewalk is probably a pipe dream - Even Reagan couldn't do that against Carter or Mondale.
The best hope Obama has right now is to have an opponent that is polarizing. The only way Obama can hope to win is that if enough independents think the other guy is even worse. Well that will not be the case with Romney. I realize that many conservatives loathe Romney - and for good reason. But in the end, no matter how much they say otherwise on internet forums, they are going to pull the lever for him because no way will they be voting for Obama.
So it's not disgruntled conservatives but the independents that will be deciding this election.
I later agreed it was too exhuberent on my part to say 65%...perhaps in the high 50’s.
That’s slightly inaccurate. Carter hit 50% of the vote in ‘76. I know it’s nitpicking.