No, they won’t vote against him. Ethnic solidarity will ensure a high percentage of the black vote. But they don’t have to vote for him, or put in time organizing and getting out the vote.
Less passion will ensure a lower turnout and could make a difference in swing states.
That's the bottom line. And just to be sure -- pray for rain.
Bingo! It was already going to be tougher to get high turnout the second time around because, now that Obama is President, it's no longer about “making history” by electing him. So, this gay marriage stuff is the last thing Obama needs.
Obama will get 95% of the Black vote, but I predict the Black vote will be notably lighter this time around.
A black pastor in the Washington, D.C. area has already announced he will not vote for Obama — publicly. He said he would not vote for Romney either. He would just stay home.