Just curious: why is it that everytime an unfavorable poll is posted, it is immediately disregarded as junk? The only think junk about it is the fact that 6 months is an eternity and who knows what the results will be after Labor Day, debates, etc.?
You are correct that some people reflexively dismiss as “junk” any poll whose results they don’t like, which is obviously a stupid thing to do, since failing to face the truth often leads to defeat. But in this case, this is a poll by Suffolk University (a liberal school, and not exactly Mason-Dixon or Rasmussen in the world of polling) of registered voters (not of likely voters, which would have presented a truer snapshot of the electorate by excluding those unlikely to vote) and with a sample that was 41% Democrat, 37% Republican and 23% other (when Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in recent elections in FL). So there are very good reasons to suspect that this poll’s results were skewed in favor of Obama, and that Romney is actually several points ahead of Obama in FL.
As for the fact that the election is a little less than 6 months away so anything can happen, that is absolutely correct, but it’s still important to know where the electorate stands today.
Just curious: why is it that everytime an unfavorable poll is posted, it is immediately disregarded as junk?
...human nature...if the preferred candidate were ahead in this poll the same people discrediting it would be touting its infallibility...it’s the way we’re wired, we disregard what doesn’t please us, especially before it truly has any meaning...
...FWIW, polls six months out are completely fluid and unconvincing, and any commentary on their worth is suspect...
Internals make a poll junk, garbage in garbage out,
Internals make a poll junk, garbage in garbage out,
If they give the true numbers and shows Obama behind by 10 or more points in most states, the mob will stay home and see it as useless to come vote. They have to keep them thinking he is going to win in a romp. He may anyway, but they got to get them all out to vote, homeless and dead included.
It’s labeled junk because (a) the sampling is biased Dem, (b) it’s registered-voters and not likely voters.