Posted on 05/04/2012 5:33:55 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
Developing
UNEXPECTED = LESS THAN EXPECTED
drink
I wonder how many people is off the payroll now..
They’ll work it down below 8% before long.
More: Drop in unemployment rate nearly entirely from people leaving the workforce
Yet the “official rate” went down, didn’t it? What a joke.
I wonder how many people “mysteriously” disappeared off the roles this month to get the rate down to 8.1%. Like Rush Limbaugh said yesterday, the rate WILL be below 8.0% on election day even if we lose 10 Million jobs between now and then.
It plummeted .1%!
Whoo hoo!
Soon to be revised upward...
It’s 8.1% if you don’t count the millions who have given up looking.
The 0bamunists will continue to cook the books on unemployment numbers right up to the election...
So another 522K people are counted as out of the work force last month. And unemployment falls a tick to 8.1%. Remind us again how that’s good news? There are 2.7M more people out of the work force the past year, versus a mere 945K going into it. As such, the participation rate hits another cycle low of 63.6%. No worries, somehow today’s news–including the lower-than-expected job growth–will be spun positively.
Jobs do NOT go up, but the unemployment rate goes DOWN.
Obama and crew are playing chicken with the economy. They are now intentionally injuring it so as to discourage workers from looking for jobs.
IF the economy won’t take off and help them, then, by gosh, they’ll kill it.
What that means is huge trouble if Scotus doesn’t overturn ObamaCare, because that will increase employer costs out the roof and even more will be laid off. We’ll enter a Great Depression.
If ObamaCare is overturned, then at best the economy will sputter due to a massive new group of people receiving 2 years of unemployment checks and then going from there onto the welfare rolls, thereby enlarging the Dem Party voting bloc.
This isn’t just bad news; it’s sinister news.
It’s the first clear indicator that Obama is intentionally pushing programs in order to lower the unemployment rate by discouraging workers.
How in the world is anyone buying these unemployment numbers?
If we’re adding 115,000 jobs and having over 360,000 filing new unemployment claims each week, how in the world can the UE numbers be going down?
And if labor force participation had stayed the same as in March, unemployment rate would have risen to 8.4%
I think I heard > 12 million...but I don’t trust CNBC any more than I trust government.
Comparison: In April of 1984, economy added a population-adjusted 480,000 jobs
Him I believe.
Explain this to me this, only 119,000 private sector jobs were added in april, gov jobs have been cut, 365,000 new jobless claims and as I understand it you need to add 200,000 jobs each month for new folks entering workforce numbers, how in the h**l can unemployment drop to 8.1%, I know retorical question, but frustrating even watching FOX talking about how good it is. WOW
“...That would be the unemployment rate if US labor force the same size as when Obama took office”.
Except that the US population is growing, and the labor force should be proportionally larger. 11% would itself be a massaging of the numbers.
“how in the world can the UE numbers be going down?”
Yep
As I’ve said over a year ago, I wish I could have laid money on the employment rate. I’d bet my everything I own that the rate will be in the 7s by October.
Next week’s headline:
“Non-farm payrolls *drop* 25,000; unemployment rate now 7.9%”
115,000 working people probably die each month. I don’t know the figures but a whole lot do die each month.
Needs more stimulus!!!!
Wait for it to be revised quietly in a week or two.
The real unemployment rate is around 10.9% when calculated the same way it was until 2009 and if using U-6, including all those unemployed collecting unemployment checks, the rate is about 16.5%. The economy sucks and 0bama won’t be able to campaign on his poor economic record for the election. He will LIE about it though.
“The 0bamunists will continue to cook the books on unemployment numbers right up to the election...”
I think they are over-estimating the impact of their false unemployment figures; the unemployed (and all of their associates) know better, and the Kenyan Pirate has no solution to deal with the despair of many people that ARE working. A lot of people have been dealing with a lot of crap at their jobs (increased workloads due to layoffs, falling salaries in terms of puchasing power), and they don’t have many ways to express their frustration/anger; unfortunately for Obama, the ballot box is the last one. It happened in 2009 in 3 states he carried (MA, NJ, VA), it happened in even more states he carried in the 2010 mid-terms, and now 2 years later (with things noticeably worse) it should happen on an even larger scale.
I understand why so much of Obama’s posturing in 2011 was geared more towards heading off a Dem primary challenge than attacking Republicans; he ended a lot of Dem’s careers in his first 2 years, and those still standing weren’t willing to take a dive for him.
Soon, they will be counting those receiving unemployment benefits as being employed, because, as Pelosi said last year, they ARE adding to the economy by receiving those benefits.
==
Eric Holder (FNS) said on Wednesday that the BLS had 15 straight weeks of ‘revised up’ figures. He said that proved they were manipulating the weekly figures to make good headlines, then quietly, ‘revising’ the numbers a few days after.
The scary part is even after all the manipulation Obama is doing to the numbers, 115,000 and 8.1% is the best they can do
Because the number shows the net jobs gain. For example, if 2 million jobs were lost and 2.1 million were created, the number would be 100K.
It won’t be next week, the job numbers are released the first Friday of each month.
"People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981"
The actual unemployment number is statistical fakery and the weekly jobs number is statistical noise (the error per BIS is roughly +/- 100,000).
This graph also shows that the official definition of a recession is also an arbitrary one unconnected to reality. See how "the recession ended" there in late 2009? That single dip was enough for them to make that decision, and it's just a blip on one of the most noiseless economic graphs in existence.
The U3 is an idiot’s statistic that is totally worthless.
There is no decent reason for excluding from a picture of unemployment those who have stopped looking for a job.
It makes far more sense to give the total number and then a number of job-able who are receiving welfare benefits. Let people draw their own conclusions.
In fact, and I could be wrong, I think a job-seeker can be dropped from the rolls for missing just a single month of job search reporting to the UE office.
169000
522,000 out of the workforce number during April [because they exhausted benefits], thus no longer counted, per Stuart Varney.
That is why the percent ‘dropped’ to 8.1%.
This is the great statistical fakery of the whole endeavor: if they call you and say you just gave up looking for a job, they don’t count you as unemployed. For purposes of the survey, you’re retired and happy with no money worries.
U6 unchanged at 14.5%
they said the workforce participation, (i believe it represents the number of people in the workforce looking for work- someone please correct me if i’m wrong), is the lowest since 1981- there was a collective gasp of horror from the CNBC crew when that was mentioned...
(Wait, "Eric Holder"?)
That statistic is true but only half, well, maybe one-forth of the story. That number is only for 2012, i.e., every single week so far. Looking backward into 2011, 59 out of 60 weeks have been "revised" upward.
I put "revised" in quotes because something that is "revised" that much is not simply incorrect -- it's skewed.
from zerohedge.com
it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.
I agree completely. But I also believe that 8% is NOT a magic number. People don't sit out there in voter land and say "Great, the number is now 7.99999%, so now I will vote for Obama." Instead, people look at their friends, neighbors, family members, and say "Oh, oh, we're in trouble". They will see that regardless of whatever contrived number the Obama administration manages to publish.
If you can stomach it, watch ABC,CBS and NBC nightly news tonight lol. They will spin this as great. However, nobody watches those shows anymore.
Holder on the brain, apparently.
I meant, FNS’s Eric Bolling.
A thousand apologies to Mr. Bolling.
I posted an article by Elizabeth McDonald of Fox News the other day that said 59 of the last 60 weeks had “revised up” figures.
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