Skip to comments.Non-Farm Payrolls Rise Less Than Exepcted, Up 115,000; Unemployment Rate at 8.1%
Posted on 05/04/2012 5:33:55 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
“...That would be the unemployment rate if US labor force the same size as when Obama took office”.
Except that the US population is growing, and the labor force should be proportionally larger. 11% would itself be a massaging of the numbers.
“how in the world can the UE numbers be going down?”
As I’ve said over a year ago, I wish I could have laid money on the employment rate. I’d bet my everything I own that the rate will be in the 7s by October.
Next week’s headline:
“Non-farm payrolls *drop* 25,000; unemployment rate now 7.9%”
115,000 working people probably die each month. I don’t know the figures but a whole lot do die each month.
Needs more stimulus!!!!
Wait for it to be revised quietly in a week or two.
The real unemployment rate is around 10.9% when calculated the same way it was until 2009 and if using U-6, including all those unemployed collecting unemployment checks, the rate is about 16.5%. The economy sucks and 0bama won’t be able to campaign on his poor economic record for the election. He will LIE about it though.
“The 0bamunists will continue to cook the books on unemployment numbers right up to the election...”
I think they are over-estimating the impact of their false unemployment figures; the unemployed (and all of their associates) know better, and the Kenyan Pirate has no solution to deal with the despair of many people that ARE working. A lot of people have been dealing with a lot of crap at their jobs (increased workloads due to layoffs, falling salaries in terms of puchasing power), and they don’t have many ways to express their frustration/anger; unfortunately for Obama, the ballot box is the last one. It happened in 2009 in 3 states he carried (MA, NJ, VA), it happened in even more states he carried in the 2010 mid-terms, and now 2 years later (with things noticeably worse) it should happen on an even larger scale.
I understand why so much of Obama’s posturing in 2011 was geared more towards heading off a Dem primary challenge than attacking Republicans; he ended a lot of Dem’s careers in his first 2 years, and those still standing weren’t willing to take a dive for him.
Soon, they will be counting those receiving unemployment benefits as being employed, because, as Pelosi said last year, they ARE adding to the economy by receiving those benefits.
Eric Holder (FNS) said on Wednesday that the BLS had 15 straight weeks of ‘revised up’ figures. He said that proved they were manipulating the weekly figures to make good headlines, then quietly, ‘revising’ the numbers a few days after.
The scary part is even after all the manipulation Obama is doing to the numbers, 115,000 and 8.1% is the best they can do
Because the number shows the net jobs gain. For example, if 2 million jobs were lost and 2.1 million were created, the number would be 100K.
It won’t be next week, the job numbers are released the first Friday of each month.
"People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981"
The actual unemployment number is statistical fakery and the weekly jobs number is statistical noise (the error per BIS is roughly +/- 100,000).
This graph also shows that the official definition of a recession is also an arbitrary one unconnected to reality. See how "the recession ended" there in late 2009? That single dip was enough for them to make that decision, and it's just a blip on one of the most noiseless economic graphs in existence.
The U3 is an idiot’s statistic that is totally worthless.
There is no decent reason for excluding from a picture of unemployment those who have stopped looking for a job.
It makes far more sense to give the total number and then a number of job-able who are receiving welfare benefits. Let people draw their own conclusions.
In fact, and I could be wrong, I think a job-seeker can be dropped from the rolls for missing just a single month of job search reporting to the UE office.
522,000 out of the workforce number during April [because they exhausted benefits], thus no longer counted, per Stuart Varney.
That is why the percent ‘dropped’ to 8.1%.