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Clouds’ Effect on Climate Change Is Last Bastion for Dissenters
New York Times ^ | April 30, 2012 | JUSTIN GILLIS

Posted on 05/01/2012 10:27:05 AM PDT by reaganaut1

LAMONT, Okla. — For decades, a small group of scientific dissenters has been trying to shoot holes in the prevailing science of climate change, offering one reason after another why the outlook simply must be wrong.

Over time, nearly every one of their arguments has been knocked down by accumulating evidence, and polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk.

Yet in recent years, the climate change skeptics have seized on one last argument that cannot be so readily dismissed. Their theory is that clouds will save us.

They acknowledge that the human release of greenhouse gases will cause the planet to warm. But they assert that clouds — which can either warm or cool the earth, depending on the type and location — will shift in such a way as to counter much of the expected temperature rise and preserve the equable climate on which civilization depends.

Their theory exploits the greatest remaining mystery in climate science, the difficulty that researchers have had in predicting how clouds will change. The scientific majority believes that clouds will most likely have a neutral effect or will even amplify the warming, perhaps strongly, but the lack of unambiguous proof has left room for dissent.

“Clouds really are the biggest uncertainty,” said Andrew E. Dessler, a climate researcher at Texas A&M. “If you listen to the credible climate skeptics, they’ve really pushed all their chips onto clouds.”

Richard S. Lindzen, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is the leading proponent of the view that clouds will save the day. His stature in the field — he has been making seminal contributions to climate science since the 1960s — has amplified his influence.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Extended News
KEYWORDS: climatechange; climategate; climategate2; clouds; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; iriseffect; lindzen
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1 posted on 05/01/2012 10:27:14 AM PDT by reaganaut1
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To: reaganaut1

“and polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk. “

Scientists who disagree are no longer working, perhaps?


2 posted on 05/01/2012 10:30:11 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: reaganaut1
"polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists scientists who suck on the teat of AGW grants now see global warming as a serious risk."

Fixed it.

3 posted on 05/01/2012 10:30:23 AM PDT by bolobaby
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To: reaganaut1

I missed the barf alert. ;-)

The article reminds me of the article written earlier this month defending Dan Rather on the forged documents. It LITERALLY dug up the same lame arguments from 2004 that were categorically debunked.

And the evidence today blows all the AGW models out of the water. It’s not happening like they thought it would. It is THEM, not the deniers, that are in trouble.

And Europe and the NYT are pissed.


4 posted on 05/01/2012 10:31:30 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: reaganaut1
"They (dissenters) acknowledge that the human release of greenhouse gases will cause the planet to warm."

BS they do...

5 posted on 05/01/2012 10:31:45 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: DBrow

The 97% comes from scientists polled a a global warming convention. Like all GW statistics, it is fake.

Pray for America


6 posted on 05/01/2012 10:31:49 AM PDT by bray (Power to We the People)
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To: cuban leaf

I heard this a long time ago and I think needs to be repeated as often as possible to the left.

If climate change is so serious, why would you rely on wind, solar, algae as your primary source of energy?


7 posted on 05/01/2012 10:34:15 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Would you rather eat dog food or cat food? Guess it's Romney 2012.)
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To: reaganaut1
the prevailing science of climate change

Stopped reading right there. Obvious, outright bias on display and not even a paragraph into the piece!

Mr. Gillis needs to go back to journalism school to be reminded how to reports the FACTS. This is a puff piece.

There is absolutely ZERO prevailing science propping up AGW. I bet if you asked where he got his facts, one reference would be "An Inconvenient Truth."

*spit*

8 posted on 05/01/2012 10:35:12 AM PDT by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: DBrow

consensus is science- ask anyone in a poll!


9 posted on 05/01/2012 10:38:02 AM PDT by TurboZamboni (Looting the future to bribe the present)
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To: reaganaut1

“Over time, nearly every one of their arguments has been knocked down by accumulating evidence, and polls say 97 percent of working scientists now see that the Sun orbits the Earth.” - New York Times Editorial in Response to Geocentric Deniers such as Galileo Galilei, 1615.


10 posted on 05/01/2012 10:41:12 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: reaganaut1

“Clouds’ Effect on Climate Change Is Last Bastion for Dissenters”

There are no skeptics on climate change. Everybody acknowledges that climate has changed in the past and it will continue to change.

The skepticism is over the human contribution to global warming, if it is even occurring, and if it what the consequences (good and bad) are, and how quickly they would occur.

Now it’s been about twenty years or more since they’ve been making all types of catastrophic predictions with none of them coming true, even though the amount of CO2 in the air has increased significantly with the industrialization of India, China, Brazil etc. THAT is the warmists biggest problem. Even Lovelock (the founder of Gaia) has come to accept that reality.

How long before the knuckleheads of the NYT come to that realization? I won’t hold my breath, because for the NYT it’s about politics not science.


11 posted on 05/01/2012 10:42:46 AM PDT by aquila48
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To: reaganaut1
Clouds? It's called water vapor.

Forget the clouds for a moment. What about the ice cores that debunked the CO2 increases predates global temperature increases? No. Not good enough to spur doubt?

How about we go back to the climate models from the 1980s and 1990s that Hanson presented to Congress. The global temperatures, ocean temperatures and sea levels are all WAY below his “Best case scenario” if we would have taken draconian measures to counter global warming back then.

We now have 30 years of data post the invention of “climate modeling.” Every single prediction of 10, 20 and 30 years dating back to 2000 is proved horrifically wrong. They are all off by more than 100%. Still not enough to say there is reason for debate?

The global temperatures measure by satellites put in orbit in the 1980s to measure global temperatures have been recording some pretty significant and consistent data. I would ask Hanson and corp to provide me a report of this data and an explanation for why the earth has almost completely stopped warming while the CO2 emissions have gone up even more than they predicted back when the satellites were put in orbit to monitor the global temperatures.

There is a simple case to be made for challenging the science. There is a strong case that their computer modeling schemes are false. There is absolute empirical proof that more money, regulation and taxation will not affect or prevent the warming of our planet.

12 posted on 05/01/2012 10:45:15 AM PDT by Tenacious 1 (With regards to the GOP: I am prodisestablishmentarianistic!)
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To: reaganaut1

“...Over time, nearly every one of their arguments has been knocked down by accumulating evidence...”

Bull Obama, craven, idiot journalists.

Show me the math.

They can’t, and you mere writers can barely count page numbers.

Shove it up your collective Obamas.


13 posted on 05/01/2012 10:45:41 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: reaganaut1
What a total crock! How about the most compelling argument, that climate change has been occurring since Earth was formed?

I love these bogus stats these liberals throw around so carelessly . . . 97% . . . LOL!!! Yeah, riiiiiigghttt. /rolleyes
14 posted on 05/01/2012 10:47:17 AM PDT by Sudetenland (Anybody but Obama!!!!)
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Ho hum....

And 97% of contemporary Marine Engineers confirmed that the RMS Titanic was “unsinkable”.

But no one told the iceberg...


15 posted on 05/01/2012 10:47:49 AM PDT by pfony1
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Ho hum....

And 97% of contemporary Marine Engineers confirmed that the RMS Titanic was “unsinkable”.

But no one told the iceberg...


16 posted on 05/01/2012 10:48:44 AM PDT by pfony1
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To: reaganaut1

They say Climate Change now because Global Warming is inoperative.


17 posted on 05/01/2012 10:49:49 AM PDT by AU72
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To: reaganaut1
"...polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk."


18 posted on 05/01/2012 10:53:02 AM PDT by Baynative (Please check this out - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFIcZkEzc8I)
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To: reaganaut1
Over time, nearly every one of their arguments has been knocked down by accumulating evidence

Would that be the tampered with East Anglia evidence?
Or the real historical data that East Anglia destroyed?
Or the falsified NASA evidence?
Or the faulty NOAA evidence?
Or the fabricated "hide the decline" Penn State statistical evidence?

19 posted on 05/01/2012 10:54:05 AM PDT by Drill Thrawl (The United States of America, a banana republic since 1913)
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To: bolobaby; DBrow
My thoughts exactly, and you beat me to it.

"97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk."

Headline from the 1930's - '40's:

"Lysenko Vindicated! ...97% of working Soviet biologists see plant genetics as a reactionary bourgeois plot."

20 posted on 05/01/2012 10:55:17 AM PDT by Mrs. Don-o (Just the facts, ma'am, just the facts.)
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To: reaganaut1

The issue has never been whether climate changes. It changes all the time.

The issue has been whether man created CO2 in the atmosphere causes climate heating.

The preponderance of evidence is that CO2 is coincidental but not causal to global warming. Rather the drivers are primarily solar activity and sometimes volcanic activity.


21 posted on 05/01/2012 10:58:32 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: reaganaut1

it’s irrelavent. We were warned 10 years ago at the climate conference that was our VERY last chance to do anything and now it is too late.

All we can do now is sit and wait four more years until the world burns up on the date Al Gore predicted.


22 posted on 05/01/2012 11:03:51 AM PDT by MNDude
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To: reaganaut1

The propagandists at NYT grazed tangentially upon one point - referring to the cloud cover - then the carom took them clear away.

What are clouds? Water vapor. What is water vapor? Only the single vastly most important “greenhouse” gas in our atmosphere, anywhere from 30 to 100 times as important as carbon dioxide, which lacks one very important characteristic compared to water vapor - under normal atmospheric conditions, CO2 exists only as a gas, while H2O can exist simultaneously in a gas, a solid, and a liquid state.

The effect of clouds is two-fold, both as a reflective surface that sends at least a portion of the electromagnetic spectrum back into space, and also as a heat-transfer medium from the earth’s surface, as the liquid form, water, evaporates, or the solid form, ice, sublimates, absorbing huge amounts of heat from the surroundings. Upon rising in the atmosphere, the water vapor gives up all this heat energy, either becoming water droplets, or very fine ice crystals. The heat energy is radiated off to space on the side of the earth turned away from the sun during the 24-hour day cycle.

After cooling, the now heavier-than-air liquid water or solid ice fall back to earth as precipitation, rain, snow, or in special conditions, hail or sleet.

This was all explained in my sixth-grade science class. Don’t know how all these highly trained atmospheric scientists missed that, but then, the quality of education has fallen off in the past sixty years or so.


23 posted on 05/01/2012 11:03:51 AM PDT by alloysteel (It is hard to get a man to understand, when his pay depends upon his not understanding something.)
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To: reaganaut1

Gee, I thought the last 15 years of global temperature stasis in the face of continuously increasing CO2 was a pretty good bastion.

Look at the data. 30 years of cooling, then 30 years of warming, then thirty years of cooling, then thirty years of warming. Any guesses as to what the next phase is going to be?


24 posted on 05/01/2012 11:07:05 AM PDT by Jack of all Trades (Hold your face to the light, even though for the moment you do not see.)
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To: reaganaut1
....polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists...

That simply means that if a climate scientist went against the progressive agenda, they lost their job.

Progressives see their political bias as a character attribute, not a limiting character flaw.

So when Stalin purged all his generals, he actually thought he was improving his military.

25 posted on 05/01/2012 11:08:14 AM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: MNDude
LOL, the future's so bright, we gotta wear shades.


26 posted on 05/01/2012 11:09:23 AM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: reaganaut1
...and polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk.

Not this 97% BS again.

For those that haven't seen it this is how the 97% was arrived at:

Ninety-Seven-Percent-Is-Not-What-You-Think

There's a petition signed by over 30,000 scientists denying that there is a clear link between AGW and "Climate Change" nee "Global Warming"

27 posted on 05/01/2012 11:10:14 AM PDT by Timocrat (Ingnorantia non excusat)
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To: Jack of all Trades
Look at the data. 30 years of cooling, then 30 years of warming, then thirty years of cooling, then thirty years of warming. Any guesses as to what the next phase is going to be?

Uh, I know this one, uh, warming. No, cooling, it's cooling! No, wait, warming, I mean cooling!


28 posted on 05/01/2012 11:11:55 AM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: reaganaut1

1 - Define “climate scientist”
2 - Why would anyone claiming to represent “science” present a “poll” rather than scientific data to defend their position?
3 - The reason “skeptics” use clouds to disprove the claims of CO2 “causing” climate change, is because water vapor is the most significant variable, with regard to temperature change. It is both the most significant variable and the most difficult to model. This makes the study of any CO2 impact, almost impossible to measure.


29 posted on 05/01/2012 11:13:07 AM PDT by G Larry (Criminals thrive on the indulgence of society's understanding)
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To: DBrow

What, I wonder, is a “climate scientist?” It doesn’t shock me that the preponderance of scientists who identify themselves as such would take “Global Warming” or “Climate Change” as a given. When all you have is a hammer everything starts to look like a nail.


30 posted on 05/01/2012 11:28:31 AM PDT by Tallguy (It's all 'Fun and Games' until somebody loses an eye!)
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To: DBrow
polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk.

Prove that. These shmucks can't "prove" anything.

FMCDH(BITS)

31 posted on 05/01/2012 12:15:59 PM PDT by nothingnew (I fear for my Republic due to marxist influence in our government. Open eyes/see)
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To: bolobaby

great fix.
Here is a full rebuttal to the New York Times today. The 97% figure relies on 77 Anonymous Persons Who Answered 2 questions that most skeptics would answer yes to.
Here is rebuttal:

http://climatedepot.com/a/15709/NYT-Reporter-Justin-Gillis-Does-it-Again-Author-of-Worst-NYT-Story-on-Climate-Ever—gets-even-worse

NYT Reporter Justin Gillis Does it Again! Author of ‘Worst NYT Story on Climate Ever’ — gets even worse!
‘Gillis has officially reduced himself to the equivalent of a newsletter writer for climate pressure groups. Just when you thought his reporting cannot get any worse, he surprises us again’


32 posted on 05/01/2012 12:23:52 PM PDT by ClimateDepot.com
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To: reaganaut1
But for more than a decade, Dr. Lindzen has said that when surface temperature increases, the columns of moist air rising in the tropics will rain out more of their moisture, leaving less available to be thrown off as ice, which forms the thin, high clouds known as cirrus. Just like greenhouse gases, these cirrus clouds act to reduce the cooling of the earth, and a decrease of them would counteract the increase of greenhouse gases.

Dr. Lindzen calls his mechanism the iris effect, after the iris of the eye, which opens at night to let in more light. In this case, the earth’s “iris” of high clouds would be opening to let more heat escape.

Gee, a negative feedback loop! Who woulda thunk it? It's too bad the NY Times' writer started the article with so much agitprop. I'm sure plenty of readers stopped right there.

33 posted on 05/01/2012 12:46:06 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: reaganaut1

New Scientific Method:

1) Propose Hypothesis.
2) Poll.
3) Science determined by Poll Results.

Welcome to the 8th Century!


34 posted on 05/01/2012 12:47:30 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (FOCUS ON FACTS: 0bamaCare Hated. Worst Recovery. Failed Stimulus. Worst Deficits.)
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To: DBrow

Funny that...

I was participating in “picking a fight in a mental ward” with some resident libs over on youtube,
and none of them seemed to want to respond to the idea that “climate scientists” who dissented from the politically correct AGW theory would not get their next research grant.

But, the residents were quick to claim that the dissenting scientists were all paid for by corporations & big oil.


35 posted on 05/01/2012 12:50:37 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: reaganaut1

When I was a youngin the coming catastrophic ice age was settled science.....Yet we are supposed to just swallow their bilge with every new catastrophic climate shift.


36 posted on 05/01/2012 12:52:32 PM PDT by CSM (Keeper of the Dave Ramsey Ping list. FReepmail me if you want your beeber stuned.)
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To: reaganaut1

Last bastion? We have lots of bastions: glaciers/ice cap, bad control of measuring stations, manipulation of historic data by messing with time spans, faking of data, hiding of data. We are dissenting from the reports, not denying the truth.


37 posted on 05/01/2012 1:07:50 PM PDT by jimfree (In Nov 2012 my 11 y/o granddaughter will have more relevant executive experience than Barack Obama)
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To: alloysteel
What are clouds? Water vapor.

One nitpick: true water vapor is invisible. If you can see it then it is no longer water vapor nor a greenhouse gas. It has condensed into liquid droplet form which has very different properties.

The highly biased NYT article neglects to mention how man can influence how clouds form. By adding a small amount of inert particulates to the air we can increase cloud formation if we want to.

Leftists advocate for most humans to die off. We cause them too much envious grief. So which is it? Do they want to sustain human life so it prospers or do they want most of us to go? They can't have it both ways.

38 posted on 05/01/2012 1:14:39 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: Tenacious 1

Darn right that their computer modeling schemes are false. Back when the Cimategate documents were released, one of the documents provided a vector of “fudge factors” used by one of the models to recompute actual temperature data to ensure that the desired “my God, manmade Global Warming is out of control” results were obtained.


39 posted on 05/01/2012 1:37:17 PM PDT by RightWingConspirator (Obamanation--the most corrupt regime since Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe)
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To: DBrow
This 97% was a poll that sampled only about 77 scientists and the questions were vague and didn't mention mans contribution to warming/cooling.

This is the basis for “consensus”.

Rather pathetic.

On the brighter side of the news, over 700 scientists signed a petition objecting to AGW.

Not to mention 49 recently objecting to NASA’s miring themselves in AGW.

NYT wordsmiths..........gotta hate them.

40 posted on 05/01/2012 1:50:33 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: reaganaut1

Who do they think they are fooling with this crap?


41 posted on 05/01/2012 4:15:57 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: reaganaut1

America if you really want to hand your country over to radical liberal environmentalists do it.

Tired of arguing with know it all’s.

It sucks that a majority can sell the rest of us into slavery.


42 posted on 05/01/2012 4:35:15 PM PDT by Tzimisce (THIS SUCKS)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; Rurudyne; steelyourfaith; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; xcamel; AdmSmith; ...

Thanks reaganaut1.
For decades, a small group of scientific dissenters has been trying to shoot holes in the prevailing science of climate change, offering one reason after another why the outlook simply must be wrong.
Actually, that's the exact reverse of what has gone on.

The global warming/AGW crowd has made up lie after lie, claiming this or that based on nothing -- and when their claims have been studied scientifically, the data show unequivocably that they are wrong. Every single time. So they make up another lie while ignoring the findings. And of course, their media shills carry their water.


43 posted on 05/01/2012 4:59:01 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (FReepathon 2Q time -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: reaganaut1

AGW is a method of transferring the wealth from the poorest of the first world to the richest of the third world.


44 posted on 05/01/2012 8:23:57 PM PDT by brityank (The more I learn about the Constitution, the more I realise this Government is UNconstitutional !!)
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To: reaganaut1
Over time, nearly every one of their arguments has been knocked down by accumulating evidence, and polls say 97 percent of working climate scientists now see global warming as a serious risk.

What a load of crap. Most climate scientists are wondering when the next glaciation will start. They're all wishing there were some way to heat the planet.

45 posted on 05/01/2012 8:27:03 PM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: Tenacious 1
There is absolute empirical proof that more money, regulation and taxation will not affect or prevent the warming of our planet.

Yes, but MORE MONEY, REGULATION, and TAXATION are the only things politicians offer to 'solve' our problems.

When EVEN MORE money is needed, they make up new problems.

Global Warming.

Racism.

Freon and the Ozone.

Asbestos in Schools.

46 posted on 05/02/2012 8:27:48 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: ckilmer
The issue has been whether man created CO2 in the atmosphere causes climate heating.

Because we all know that cold greenhouses are better at growing food.

47 posted on 05/02/2012 8:31:09 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: Reeses
By adding a small amount of inert particulates to the air we can increase cloud formation if we want to.

Only if there is water vapor to begin with. And why should we try to change it? It is a function of a self-regulating system and altering it is just asking for problems.

For instance, flooding an engine with gas doesn't make it run better.

48 posted on 05/02/2012 8:40:31 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: alloysteel
but then, the quality of education has fallen off in the past sixty years or so.

Smart slaves are hard to control.

49 posted on 05/02/2012 8:47:31 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: Uncle Miltie
New Scientific Method

You left out some steps.

1) Propose Hypothesis.
2) Poll.
3) Attack all Responders that did not Agree with the Hypothesis as Ignorant Heretics.
4) Discard Poll Responses that do not Agree with the Hypothesis.
5) Re-Poll only those who Responded Correctly the First Time.
6) Science determined by Poll Results.

50 posted on 05/02/2012 8:55:53 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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