In Oct. 2004, I used the 2002 election results to predict that, in IL, Kerry would win 57% of the vote. A month later, I was correct. I agree that, in IL, Barack is more popular than Alexi, but that’s not saying much. Alexi got about 47% of the vote.
I meant Clinton would have lost in 96 if the only thing you were factoring in was 1994. Unfortunately for us stuff happened inbetween 94 and 96....Newt stuff and Clinton "triangulating". And Perot preventing the race from being close.
BTW whether in 94 if the election was then or 96 I don't see how the candidate would have been anyone but Dole. It was his "turn". We have a long tradition of usually giving the nomination to the runner up from the last open seat that is unfortunately continuing this year.
Phil: in Oct. 2004, I used the 2002 election results to predict that, in IL, Kerry would win 57% of the vote. A month later, I was correct
Close but Kerry got 55% (54.82% to be exact) in Illinois not 57%.
Believe me I hope you're right cause that means Obama is losing big time, more than here I hope you are right about Ohio cause winning Ohio is almost a guarantee of winning the election. Last time they voted for a loser was 1960 and Kennedy stole that election so you really have to go back to 1944 when loser Dewey won Ohio but lost.
I can't allow myself to be that optimistic. I expect Obum will lose but narrowly.