Don’t forget the 2000 election. And Obama is sure to win fewer votes overall than he did last time. So Florida is likely to be much closer before even considering the Jewish vote. Thus a shift in the Jewish vote could very well tank Obama in Florida. As noted above, the shift is unlikely to matter in ever-blue NY and CA which Dems may never lose again. But Jews could also make a difference in Ohio and perhaps Pennsylvania if things are close.
Mitt may not be a conservative but one thing is damn sure - he and Bibi are tight, he would never leave our middle east ally in a lurch like Obama has.
Most important, black voters have got to be disilusioned. Their turnout in ‘08 was unbelievable in FL. They were lined up so far back, I couldn’t tell where the door to the polling place was.