As posted on the Gallup thread:
Generally, I agree that likely voters is better than registered voters, but since we are still 6 months away from the election, there will be hundreds of reasons for simply registered to move into the likely camp.
IIRC, likely voter points are given for both voting in the most recent election and responses to questions.
Gallup’s website, for example, says it factors in “prior voting” and “voter intention”. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx
If you didn’t vote in the mid-term or the off-term, then you would lose points there. And if you said TODAY that you’re not interested, that doesn’t mean you won’t be interested in August.
In short, those numbers change the closer you get to an election.
Look, if it makes you feel all so much better that Obama will have a second term based on these early RV polls that show him barely hitting 50% against a guy who is just now getting the nomination ... feel that way.
I wouldnt want to bust your bubble of joy over Obama inevitably beating Romney.
But it’s just not reality.
Obama’s in big trouble and deservedly so. He’s done a lousy job and Romney will do a better job and voters will fire Obama.