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Paul most likely won't be that much of a factor if the 08 primary is any indication. That said neither was Romney that much of a factor either.

2008 Republican Party Primary Election

3/4/2008

RACE NAME PARTY CANVASS VOTES PERCENT

President/Vice-President

Hugh Cort REP 728 0.05%

Rudy Giuliani REP 6,038 0.44%

Mike Huckabee REP 518,002 38.02%

Duncan Hunter REP 8,222 0.60%

Alan Keyes REP 8,260 0.60%

John McCain REP 697,767 51.21%

Ron Paul REP 66,360 4.87%

Mitt Romney REP 27,264 2.00%

Fred Thompson REP 11,503 0.84%

Hoa Tran REP 604 0.04%

Uncommitted REP 17,574 1.29%

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Race Total 1,362,322

RACE	NAME	PARTY	CANVASS VOTES	PERCENT
President/Vice-President
	Hugh Cort	REP	728	0.05%
	Rudy Giuliani	REP	6,038	0.44%
	Mike Huckabee	REP	518,002	38.02%
	Duncan Hunter	REP	8,222	0.60%
	Alan Keyes	REP	8,260	0.60%
	John McCain	REP	697,767	51.21%
	Ron Paul	REP	66,360	4.87%
	Mitt Romney	REP	27,264	2.00%
	Fred Thompson	REP	11,503	0.84%
	Hoa Tran	REP	604	0.04%
	Uncommitted	REP	17,574	1.29%
			-----------
		Race Total	1,362,322