I read PPP’s spin on the numbers - which mirrors your take - and I disagree. Right now, the race has been declared “over” by everyone but a few bloggers, and voters have tended to follow suit, and resignedly threw their support to the establishment candidate, Romney.
And yet...a substantial minority of Republicans have refused to take orders from the elite, and have decided to vote their convictions, i.e., to vote for Newt. Granted, the close numbers in TX represent just a modest chance for Newt. He must win Delaware tonight, and win or “place” a close second in NC on May 8th. If that happens, Romney’s inevitability is again placed into question, and more voters will cast conviction votes for Newt, which should cause Gingrich to prevail in TX (a winner-take-all-delegates state.)
And then we’ll have a fun convention.
But all this is moot if Newt doesn’t win Delaware tonight.
No, Texas is NOT a winner take all state this election cycle. It's delegates are distributed proportionally. The Santorum camp was hoping that Texas could change to winner take all, but the RNC shot that down immediately. It was one of the reasons cited by the Santorum people for why he suspended his campaign.
But all this is moot if Newt doesn’t win Delaware tonight.
If Newt loses Delaware and tries to remain in the race he is really going to look foolish. Delaware is winner take all I believe, so Gigrich has to actually win to get the 17 delegates. A close second gets him nothing. I actually think Newt does have a chance to win Delaware, but I don't see how it will make any difference in the long run. Maybe it would just be nice to see him go out on a high note.