I know much of this is true. Indeed, after the first ballot, all bets are OFF. The battle is occurring now in primary states with smaller caucuses to elect the delegates. For example, a die-hard Paulbot can go to a caucus, pledge to vote for Rotney on the first ballot, and then get “elected” by those present (5 people? 50 people? etc) as a Rotney delegate. If Rotney does not have that magic 1144, ALL bets are OFF!
Interesting analysis. Thanks, xzins.