Only one problem. If Newt continues to split the vote and come in third or fourth, it actually increases Romney’s chances of hitting 1,144 delegates.
I’m not knocking Newt. It’s his choice. But it does seem odd that he doesn’t envision coming back at least into second place in the race, but still continues on.
I’d much rather see Ron Paul drop out. But there’s no chance that he will, judging from his past behavior.
Paul didn’t drop out until June last go around. That was 3 full months after McCain “officially” wrapped it up with a win in Texas. Paul won’t drop out until well after Romney has secured 1144. Heck, if he never does, his delegates will be the most stubborn people on the floor and their 100 or so votes will be really annoying in a close race since they won’t be up for grabs.
Only one problem. If Newt continues to split the vote and come in third or fourth, it actually increases Romney’s chances of hitting 1,144 delegates.
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The alternative is to withdraw- and if so, (1) the likelihood that Rick will be successful is very small; (2) the pressure on Rick to withdraw will be relentless- whereas as now Newt provides him cover; and/or (3) Newt wholly forfeits any control over the process of stopping Romney.
Under such scenarios, for those who wish to stop Romney— better to have Newt allied with, and/or leading the fight.
That is why Newt is staying in. To insure that Romney gets 1144 delegates.
He never meant to stay in to the convention. See today, he says he is staying in until Romney gets 1144. Newt knows he won’t get the nomination at a brokered convention.
Mathematically it doesn't work out that way. Polling across various states shows without Newt, Santorum gets no more than 57% of Newt's share. In some states, Mitt getting 4 or 5 out of 10 Newt voters lets him will top 50% total which can mean he captures all delegates from the state.
Newt's exit actually accelerates Romney's path to the nomination.
Examining polling data and six upcoming states, Santorum can only be advantaged with Newt leaving if he can get within 2% of Romney now on his own (with Newt still in) and he outperforms the two-man best polling with 6 out of 10 Newt voters every time.
I’m not knocking Newt. It’s his choice. But it does seem odd that he doesn’t envision coming back at least into second place in the race, but still continues on.
I’d much rather see Ron Paul drop out. But there’s no chance that he will, judging from his past behavior.
You're not seeing this clearly. If there is a pool, outside of romney committeds, of conservative and quasiconservative voters, call them nonromneys, to some degree or the other. Some of them will go to santorum as the socon, and some will go to Newt as a strongly proven conservative.
Polling has shown that if Newt or Santorum weren't in, in other words, if one of the "conservatives" dropped out, not all of their votes go to the remaining "conservative" singularly - approximately 50% of that pool would go to the only conservative remaining, and the other 50% to romney. So by staying in, Newt is robbing Romney of 25% of the delegates he would have gotten if only one conservative was in the race. Don't know if I explained it well enough, but that is the quantitative picture of what is going on if Newt stays in or if there are two anti-romneys.