Totally agree...
The most recent election is always the one to refer to, especially if conditions haven’t changed or have gotten worse.
All Allen (or whoever) needs to do is tie Kaine to O’bummer’s hip - which will be very easy - and it’s OVER.
The demographics of the elections changed drastically from 2008 to 2010. The shift from Democrat to Republican was something like 18% overall, which is enormous. Under McDonnell and the Republican house, Virginia has done very well. I know unemployment is below 6%, so that’s a fantastic sign compared to the rest of the country.
On RCP, there was an NBC/Marist poll from a few weeks ago that showed Kaine up by 9. The internals of the poll were fascinating - when you look at likely voters instead of just registered voters, there was an enormous shift towards conservative voters.
If these numbers are indicative of what will happen in 2012, Obama might lose by 20. If that happens, there’s simply no way that Allen will lose.