>> there aren’t enough “blue” voters in the D.C. suburbs to put Tim over the top <<
Agreed. And I’d add at least three points:
1. The “purple” voters of Fairfax County went for the GOP in the last gubernatorial election, in 2009. No sign that they’ve developed a sudden love for the Dhims, and they still seem to like McDonnell. They are also exactly the kind of “moderates” and independents whom Romney will attract, thereby helping Allen.
2. Webb took many votes from these groups: the Vietnamese, the Navy/Marine Corp folks in Hampton Roads, and the “Scotch-Irish” of the Valley and SW Virginia. Kaine lacks the special appeal Webb had to these voters, and their return to the GOP will easily give Allen more than the 5000-or-so vote margin by which he lost in 2006.
3. The Washington Post will be so busy defending Obama that they won’t have the time or space to mount another “Maccaca” campaign againt Allen!
Quinnipiac poll of likely voters yesterday had Kaine up 47-44 and Obama ahead of Romney 50-42 or 49-43 with McDonnell as VP. Pretty depressing. I was never able to find the weight of the poll however.