Posted on 03/19/2012 10:39:11 PM PDT by VinL
With former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich low in the polls and splitting the conservative vote with former Sen. Rick Santorum, commentators and pundits have suggested that Gingrich should drop out of the GOP race. Political analyst Scott Rasmussen told The Daily Caller that a dispassionate reading of the tea leaves suggests they’re right.
“I think if [Gingrich] dropped out, it would be good for the party and it would be good for Santorum and Romney,” Rasmussen said. “It is much easier and much healthier for the Republican party if you have Santorum and Romney going head-to-head and Ron Paul throwing in a different perspective, than it is to have Gingrich and Santorum fighting to appeal to the same group of voters.”
Rasmussen noted that Gingrich is prolonging the GOP nomination by remaining in the contest, as he has insisted he would.
“The race to get 50 percent is a lot harder if four people are splitting them up,” Rasmussen said.
Gingrich lags behind Santorum and former Gov. Romney with 136 delegates and 14 percent in the polls, stretching his two primary victories in South Carolina and Georgia as far as they will go.
Gingrich’s campaign spokesperson gave no sign of throwing in the towel.
“Santorum and Romney are not bold enough to challenge the Democrat machine,” R.C. Hammond said, dismissing Rasmussen’s comments. “Newt is and he will.” (RELATED: Full coverage of the Gingrich campaign)
While the former speaker may possess that boldness, RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende has seen little success from the Gingrich campaign, concluding that “the numbers just aren’t there.”
Gingrich would have to win 75 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.
“His goal right now,” Trende explained, “and what his entire strategy is — and he says this — is to keep Romney from getting to 1,144 [delegates], and split up the delegates enough ways that there’s a brokered convention and maybe he can convince all of the delegates to break his way there.”
But Gingrich might be in for more disappointment.
Rasmussen suggested that if anything, it is “conceivable” that GOP front-runner Mitt Romney could go to an open convention with with less than 50 percent of the delegates but a big lead, meaning he would be the nominee no matter what.
“The only way it becomes a brokered convention is if none of the candidates has a big lead,” Rasmussen explained. “If that happens, you have a free-for-all — a pretty unlikely scenario.”
Both analysts agree that if Gingrich ended his candidacy, most of his voters would go to Santorum, but not all of them.
In fact, Trende predicted that Gingrich dropping out would increase Romney’s odds of becoming the nominee. Romney, with 507 delegates, stands twice as tall next to Santorum’s 239 delegates.
“The race right now is between Romney and a brokered convention,” Trende speculated. “It will be very difficult for Rick Santorum to get to 1,144 [delegates], whether Gingrich is in or not.”
[ I am realistic and know 100 percent that Gingrich will NOT be our nominee. ]
I see... so you have no principles!...
You vote for whom you think might win?.. not whom you want to win?..
Somehow my opinions are less—or more— important on this topic than yours or anyone else’s?
Go figure.
“Like Juan Mclaim I feel Santo and Willard will throw the election..
You know.. like Juan... TAKE A DIVE.. He did you know?..”
Yes, Juan McClame had $23 million dollars left over after throwing the election for Obama. You can’t tell me he did his best when he had that much money he did not use. Of course, Juan put that money to good use carpet bombing JD Hayworth in the AZ Senate Primary in 2010. Anyone notice the pattern? The RINO’s pull out all the stops with negative, lying, misleading ads against Conservatives in primaries, but then roll over for the democrats and denounce “negative” campaigning when they get to the general election. The Bishop will be no different and having Sanctimonious as his VP won’t make a matter.
“I know you don’t want to hear this, but Santorum is in the middle of a major meltdown. Have you looked at him the last few days? He is beginning to look a little unhinged.”
I did notice that. I think that it stems from is inability to stay on message or have a coherent message. One other thing I’ve noticed is he has been calling Newt Congressman Gingrich instead of Speaker Gingrich which is an extremely petty insult and lacks the respect and civility that I would expect from a presidential candidate.
Sanctimonious should quit for the good of the party. Being Romney’s VP isn’t worth it. Go Newt!
A riot on the floor of the convention usurping the RINO faction of the GOP is very feasable. Its why the RINOs fear a brokered convention.
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