[NEMDF]

Time for Carney and crew to figure out how to play it out to show that those who voted in these polls are just racists who want to bring 0bama down.

[nathanbedford]

The sample in this case is a little skewed, but in an unusual direction. The D/R/I is 32/36/32 for an R+4 advantage, one of the rare occasions when a pollster favors Republicans. The four-point advantage for the GOP has low odds of becoming reality in the fall, though; the midterm elections, without a Democrat defending the White House, had a 35/35/30 in CNN exit polling. Republicans will do well if they get to that kind of parity in November with Obama at the top of the ticket.

I am not clear why the breakdown between Democrats/Republicans/independents should move in favor of the Democrats between now and the election just because the Democrats have a President at the head of their ticket. First, the data shows the independents are breaking substantially against Obama and the Democrats and therefore I do not think that the Democrats can look to this group for help.

Second, even if the Democrats can improve their share of the split to 35/35/31 I would expect history to repeat itself from the November midterm elections when such a split produced a Republican landslide.

So if all things remain the same, which they most certainly will not, I would expect the Republicans to be in good shape right up to the top of the ticket.

However, I am coming more and more to the belief that Obama will strike against Iran and contrive an October Surprise if his polling numbers stay adverse.