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>Would Romney carry Michigan or Pennsylvania against Obama?

With the bad economy, the disasters in Afghanistan and elsewhere across the world, and the social issues, a Republican like Romney might win pretty easily. But, if the election is close, the crucial states will be, as usual, Ohio, N.H., Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Of all these states, Romney only really helps us in N.H. Maybe Colorado, Nevada and Florida, because of better appeal to minorities. With regard, specifically, to Michigan and Pennsylvania, if Romney doesn’t win Ohio, he won’t win Michigan or Pennsylvania.

With Santorum, there is a possibility that we will lose a percent or two to Gary Johnson as candidate of the Libertarian Party and maybe six or seven percent to Jon Huntsman as candidate of Americans Elect Party, like what happened in 1980, Again, because of the bad economy, etc., Santorum might still win even with third party siphoning, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980 (which is not to say I think Santorum is like Reagan). But, in a close election, Santorum might loss as many of our voters to libertarian and moderate independent candidates, as he plucks off blue-collar, white voters from the Democrats. Santorum would help us in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and possibly Wisconsin, and hurt us in N.H., Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

According to the following projection, based on presidential approval numbers, we should landslide in the electoral college as long as we don’t splinter our vote:

http://race42012.com/category/2012-electoral-college-projection/

As amazing as it sounds, we would win 269 to 269 with the House deciding the matter, even without N.H., Ohio, Pennsylvania, Oregon or Iowa. (Hopefully we will also take the Senate so as to elect the VP as well.)