When Ronald W. Reagan came into his native IL to campaign in 1976, he said it would be a miracle if he got 40 percent over Gerald R. Ford in that liberal state. I think that is about what he got. The state is liberal, liberal, liberal, and we can’t put much hope in it. I think the key to Rick’s potential loss was his failure to get on the VA ballot. Having to forfeit ID and UT hurts too.
Also it is a loophole primary (the vote for the presidential candidate doesn’t drive delegate selection; voters vote for individual delegates). Also officially IL delegates are unpledged.
So Santorum could win and still lose....my sense of it is that IL Republicans running for delegate with adequate name recognition generally favor Romney. Santorum needs good organization here and probably doesn’t have it.