Romney will be the nominee if both Newt and Rick stay in the race. There is no avoiding it. The only way to beat him is for a single conservative to remain in the race and to outperform Romney in the MANY winner-take-all states and districts coming up. That is the only way Newt and Rick can accumulate enough delegates together that they will outnumber Romney’s and Paul’s.
If they both stay in, Romney has a chance to just limp over the 1,144 threshold, or will almost definitely be close enough that Paul’s delegates can put him over the top.
Newt and Rick have handed him delegates he could have been denied by vote-splitting in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Almost THREE TIMES that many upcoming states have similar winner-take-all rules. The primaries were set up that early states would be mostly proportional, but later states are the opposite.
Romney will amass more delegates in the following states in a 3-man race while he could be virtually shut out of many in a 2-man race. A 2-man race denies him 100-200 more delegates by making sure he never gets a plurality when Newt and Rick’s combined votes could have beaten him and by sometimes beating him by 50%. THIS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE in denying him the nomination. It’s that close.
Illinois
Wisconsin
Maryland
New York
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Delaware
West Virginia
Texas
California
New Jersey
most of the above states are NE Romney states, where he wins either a 2 or 3 man race. Rick might take his home state of PA, but remember he lost his re-election there by 18 points.
Rick could win in TX, WV and WI.
But, the math shows improbable path to Rick reaching 1144.
The goal must be to stop Mitt from getting to 1144 before the convention.
Bravo...the only coherent post I have read so far today. You are completely correct.
Santorum should contest MD, as it is a closed primary, and the liberals there are mostly Democrats. He might outsmart the liberal GOP in MD, but maybe not either.
Newt should just withdraw from certain states, maybe Texas, California, and New York...three big states or the maybe in the winner-take-all states. He could still stay in the race just not in all the states and thus stay vocal and heard until the convention. I think a brokered convention would be outstanding. More free publicity for the Right and make the dem convention look dead.