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To: Utmost Certainty

According to some propagandists at Politico, Newt lost BIG, but I like Halstonin’s take:

Party: Republican
Reply #4
Mar. 14, 2012 - 1:43 AM EST

“Losing big? Ms. Gibson, I’m sorry, but your headline puts the credibility of your entire article in question. I’m no fan of Newt Gingrich, but he didn’t in any way “lose big.” The GOP nomination comes down to the delegates, not who “wins” each state, and Gingrich came in a close second in both Alabama and Mississippi- in other words he leaves with about the same number of delegates as Rick Santorum, and more than Mitt Romney (who came in third place in both states, beaten by Gingrich despite vastly outspending him in both places). Since Romney was trounced in both states, despite spending way more than Santorum, Gingrich and Paul combined, maybe Romney should drop out of the race based on this logic? Also keep in mind:

- In contrast to the generally narrow wins (for any candidate) in the primaries of the last few few weeks, Gingrich’s wins have been strong and decisive. He got nearly half the total vote in Georgia- which is far, far better than Romney did in his own home turf of Michigan- and he clobbered both Romney and Santorum in South Carolina, where Romney outspent him and the other candidates by many millions of dollars.

- South Carolina is also the only early primary where the GOP saw an increase in turnout compared to 2008, and Gingrich won it decisively. (The GOP winner in South Carolina has also been the nominee in all of the previous primary seasons, so that was no small feat on Gingrich’s part.) This suggests that Gingrich has an ability to motivate GOP voter enthusiasm in a way that his rivals don’t, especially Mitt Romney.

- Gingrich has a large number of second-place finishes in many other states, for example he did better than Santorum in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada, he tied Romney in Oklahoma, and he beat Romney in both Alabama and Mississippi. IOW Gingrich is very much in the thick of it.

- The race is still fluid enough that it can change on a dime. This is partly because of the debates, in which Gingrich performs well. It’s also because Romney will now be focusing on attacking Rick Santorum, which can allow Gingrich to sneak in and gain broader support- just as Romney’s attacks on Gingrich allowed Santorum to sneak in and take Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota.

- We’re barely through half the primaries, and Romney in particular will be struggling with the upcoming states. Romney got a misleading boost in his delegate count thanks to the early primaries being ridiculously skewed in his favor- packed with Mormon states (among the GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses), Romney home states (Michigan- which he still almost lost- Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine) and states that he’d won in 2008 (Minnesota for example), and yet Romney still flopped. By contrast, the upcoming states are probably friendlier territory for Newt. He’s long had popularity in Louisiana (even more so than Alabama and Mississippi), which shares many cultural and political ties with Georgia, as well as in Arkansas.

- The most favorable scenario for Newt is probably a brokered convention, and considering his revivals before (going into Dec 2011 and in South Carolina), he could still very much be important then esp if he does well in the debates. Brokered conventions wouldn’t necessarily be damaging to either party- there’s a long history of them, and if anything it can sometimes allow them a chance to hash out their coalitional issues and improve their platform, so it could be favorable to either party using it. It may also be to the benefit of the GOP’s conservative wing, and to Gingrich in particular. Going into the winner-take-all states- like Texas and California- may pose a re-think to avoid a split in the conservative vote, but up until then, it may be advantageous for Gingrich to rack up delegates and essentially tag-team with Santorum against Romney. He would then have far more sway in the convention, and considering the unpredictability of the process thus far, could very well come back again.

Many factors at work here, but the bottom line is that it’s still relatively early in the nominating process, and Newt still has good reasons to stay in.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73986.html#ixzz1p4QnXQ5d


40 posted on 03/14/2012 12:04:01 AM PDT by Rome2000 (Rick Santorum voted against Right toWork)
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To: Rome2000

Great article, thanks for that.


41 posted on 03/14/2012 12:10:22 AM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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