I am not sure I agree with all of that, though Newt is alive and if he wins at least one today and beats Santorum in both, then he is very alive.
Now where I disagree is that the voters of the two candidates are not totally the same type person. RS' voters are all either a: non Mitts or b: social only or c: deceived into believing RS is the real conservative in the race. Thus, I think they will mostly go to Newt if RS drops out.
BUT, and this is where I am simply theorizing, I think a portion of Newt's voters are motivated by different things - including ability, accomplishment, etc - and not all of those voters would go to RS. Some of course are non Mitts and movement conservatives and they would go grudgingly to RS.
Several very intelligent analysists have concluded that if Newt were to drop out, most of those votes would NOT go to Santorum, they would go between Paul and Romney.
I firmly agree with that. But if santo were to drop out, they would overwhelmingly go to Newt.
But we know that Santo is now getting desperate again, and his Ego won't accept the fact that even now, it is hopeless for him to win, based on his severe disorganization and failure to comply with registration rules in several of the remaining states.