This is going to be a close election. Obama is vulnerable. He may be re-elected, but if so, it will be a narrow margin.
Ditto if the GOP nominee wins election, it will be close.
Everyone should visit the electoral vote map sites. There are number of them on-line. All of them show Obama solid in states with between 175 to 200 electoral votes. They also show the unknown GOP nominee with about 180 solid electoral votes. There are about 15 battleground states.
270 electoral votes are needed for election.
If you see the battleground states on these maps, such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, etc. you will see that Obama won all of these states last time. And yet now he is vulnerable in many states he carried last time.
Remember too that a re-election campaign is a referendum on the incumbent in a way the previous election couldn’t be. Obama had no record to run on in 2008. Now he does have a record.
I think that’s right. It will be close...basically a coin toss right now.