If the GOP can win back the following states (highly likely IMHO ), I think Obama is gone after 2012:
Florida 29
Virginia 13
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18
Indiana 11
Iowa 6
New Mexico 5
Nevada 6
That would be a pickup of 97 EV’s.
Add these to the 173 that McCain won in 2008 and you get 276. Greater than the 270 needed to win.
In my old way of doing math, 97 plus 173 equals 270.
But the electoral votes you give for the eight swing states actually adds up to 103 electoral votes, not 97.
So that would be 103 plus 173 which gives us your projected total of 276.