Posted on 02/26/2012 5:33:18 PM PST by lilyfreeper
No #s yet, just some tidbits:
I'd expect Michigan results between 10 and 11 tonight, and Arizona results between midnight and 1 AM (all eastern)
Early observations on today's polls: Michigan still pretty close, but Romney headed for a huge win in Arizona.
It looks like Romney has banked about a 30 point lead among early voters in Arizona and they're more than half the electorate.
From the findings I didn't expect file: Babeu still seen more favorably than not by Arizona Republicans.
Santorum's favorability numbers not what they were a week ago- the shine is finally wearing off with GOP voters.
Arizona voters on which they're more concerned with: about 80% economy, 15% social issues. Could help explain Santorum's drop.
In Michigan the do you care more about the economy or social issues question coming in about 70/20 for the economy.
No thanks.
Studboi is viewed favorably? Interesting.
One tweet also says “Michigan still pretty close.” If Romney is humiliated in his home state, a blow-out in Arizona will be a footnote.
http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/173907357301096448
Mythens won’t win AZ because of my or my wife’s vote!
Arizona also has a sizable Morman population.
It is truly amazing how tribal some demographic groups are: blacks vote for BHO2 becasue he is one of them, and Mormons vote for Romney because he is one of them.
Now, I’m grossly oversimplifying this trend, but it is sizable enough to win elections.
I can answer that. I first came to AZ in 1995. Since that time it has seen monstrous immigration from California as the libs take it further down the spiral.
People say that this is an excuse. It is not. It’s the truth. Look at the growth of places like Bullhead City, Kingman, Lake Havasu City and the Burbs of the Phoenix/Tucson/Flagstaff areas. Most of those new residents came from either Mexico or California.
The ‘old timers’ (and bear in mind, most of AZ’s population was imported at some point otherwise the Tribes and a few others would be the only residents) that used to be the bedrock conservative base of the state are overwhelmed by straight liberals and Cali RINOs that hate the ‘regulation’ of Cali, but still want the ‘services and bennies’ they got there.
Arizonans are certainly a strange breed of conservative. You get folks like Arpaio, etc. at the local or state level, then you get freaks like Napolitano and McCain at the national. Yet, they’re reliably Republican for the Presidential vote. Mormon tribalism and retirees who just think he looks presidential? I’m at a loss.
Clarification... “Straight liberals” meaning Hardcore libs. There are plenty of the ‘bent’ variety here too.
AZ has a large Mormon population...
thanks.
By Tuesday Michigan will fall by 12+pts.
This is one sad primary season.
Santorum supporters must continue their crusade and all candidates' must continue to fight.
But none of these guys are going into the convention with 1,144 delegates.
It is a totally different place than it was in the 90s. The two (then/now) can’t really be compared. My mother came out ther in the 80s and at that point it was still ‘the wild west’ in a lot of ways. Today it’s just as regulated and screwed up as the other ‘56’ states.
And again history repeats. Liberals and their destructive effect are the root of the problems in AZ.
When you drop MILLIONS in a campaign, the "WALKIN' AROUND MONEY" and the handing out of ballots to Illegals and Party Operatives tends to keep the Establishment Candidate way out front, such as in other States with Early Voting.
IMHO, there should be ONE Primary Election date, nationwide, and you either show up at the polls on that day, or you don't vote, period.
There's no Photo ID on Early Voters, and Voter ID should be required, nationwide. If you can't show your face in public, or don't have a permanent address that's verifiable; you don't VOTE!
Warren Jeffs has a lot of kids in Arizona, along with hundreds of thousands of other Mormons - and they vote....every single one.
Axelrod is convinced that the Russell Pearce recall means Obama can take Arizona this year. He is delusional, but they are putting a lot of cash into it.
that's what happens when you stupidly take the bait from the Obama campaign, via their media minions, to focus on contraception.
If phony screwball Romney wins the nominations, we will have a choice between two Democrats, a socialist and a Communist. It’s time that Rick dumped some real negatives on him, such as the fact that his judicial nominations would make any Democrat proud, and that his support of Tsongas in ‘92, whom he originally forgot that he voted for, and ultimately claimed in a debate that there were no Republicans to support.
(Answer: George H.W. Bush, Qustion: Who was the ‘92 GOP nominee whom Romney COULD have voted for over Paul Tsongas?)
It’s time for Rick to strip the bark off this liar! Bob
AZ may be a goner, but there’s still Michigan. New tweet:
http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/173959129650569217
“Mitt Romney’s taken a very small lead on our new Michigan poll...full results between 10 and 10:30”
If Romney’s latest defamation campaign hasn’t killed Santorum in MI yet, I don’t think it’s going to. Plus, Santorum typically gets a couple points above his polling in the actual vote.
Santorum’s net favorability in Michigan has declined 29 points in the last week.
Wow, just wow... Poor Little Ricky .
Newt’s already conceded Michigan. So to slow down Romney’s momentum, both Gingrich & Santorum supporters should hope that Santorum prevails in Michigan. Beating Romney in his home state might not kill his candidacy, but it will severely wound it.
Story of the GOP race: 2 weeks ago Santorum’s net fav was 34 pts better than Romney’s in MI. Now Romney’s is 5 pts better than Santorum.
With voters more concerned about economic than social issues (69% in MI) Romney leads Santorum 45-30.
Saint Rick is a gaffomatic Mittens is as well.
Ron Paul and newt are the two left I like.
Also it has a large Mormon minority that will be exceptionally well organized.
Easy, they lack discernment. No one should put too much faith in the American people; the record shows it would be misplaced.
It is truly amazing how tribal some demographic groups are: blacks vote for BHO2 becasue he is one of them, and Mormons vote for Romney because he is one of them.
Now, I’m grossly oversimplifying this trend, but it is sizable enough to win elections.
I'm not sure how large the mormon populations is...
LDS figures from 2000 say 6%
Wiki references a large 2008 survey that says 4%
With Arizona's growth I suspect the present figure may be nearer 3% - measurable, but is that really sizable?
You can take that to the bank!
Mormon win in a Mormon state. Even Jan Brewer knows that trying to go against that tide is futile.
**Breaking** PPP has Romney up by 2 points in latest Michigan primary poll...
Romney 39%
Santorum 37%
13% Paul
9% Gingrich
I think things are still looking pretty good for Santorum given that he has a recent history of outperforming PPP’s numbers.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-takes-small-michigan-lead.html
Thanks McCain and Brewer for endorsing a damn rino
Santorum could use that 9% from Gingrich right now.
When searching for a scapegoat, any boogeyman will do!
Santorum could help himself by talking about gas prices, jobs and debt instead of birth control, the separation of church and state etc.
freemarketsfreeminds wrote:
<<
Santorum could help himself by talking about gas prices, jobs and debt instead of birth control, the separation of church and state etc.
>>
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Possibly. But it’s difficult when the media continues to harp on the birth control issue and keeps peppering Santorum with questions about it.
1996 - Arizona went for Clinton.
It’s very difficult, but they won’t stop. Rick needs to take those questions reframe them, and use them to segway into things he wants to talk about.
PPP Michigan GOP Poll
Among Very Conservative Voters:
Santorum 44%
Romney 34%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 9%
Woo hoo!!
Newt should plead with his 9% to support Rick IN MICHIGAN!
That would doom Willard in his own home state plus dry up the Massachusetts Liberal’s funds — sending the Establishment into full panic mode.
Do it, Newt!
CainConservative wrote:
PPP Michigan GOP Poll
Among Very Conservative Voters:
Santorum 44%
Romney 34%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 9%
Woo hoo!!
************************************************************
Now if those very conservative Michigan voters will show up at the polls in great enough numbers to defeat Romney on Tuesday night, all the better!
“With Arizona’s growth I suspect the present figure may be nearer 3% - measurable, but is that really sizable?”
Depends on whether the population is concentrated in geographical areas leading to pockets of political control. From what I’ve read, Mesa, AZ, has a large percentage of Mormons.
Indian reservations are usually Democratic Party strongholds, so expect them to vote for Obama.
Do all retirees vote conservative Republican? No.
Michigan votes this coming tuesday......
Dole, McCain, Romney, I can’t stand this!!!
I was a Bachmann and Cain supporter. Why do we let the media destroy our candidates?
This should be a run away year against 0babma and his anti-American policies, not to mention the gas prices. Am I so out of touch?
Mormon population has been watered down the past few years..AZ has seen a large influx of escapees from the left coast. The Indian reservation are lefties...it will be interesting non the less...Hmmmm wondering what the polls are? Should I stick with Newt or go with Rick..Romo can KMA!
mplsconservative wrote:
<<
Dole, McCain, Romney, I can’t stand this!!!
I was a Bachmann and Cain supporter. Why do we let the media destroy our candidates?
This should be a run away year against 0babma and his anti-American policies, not to mention the gas prices. Am I so out of touch?
>>
************************************************************
No, you’re not at all.... The powers-that-be who comprise the GOP inside-the-beltway establishment on the other hand are so grossly out of touch that they’re practically sabotaging what otherwise should be a year we defeat Obama in a landslide.
But none of these guys are going into the convention with 1,144 delegates.
I hope you are right Mariner.
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