“What happens to Rick’s momentum if he loses both MI and AZ?”
Romney gets it for Super Tuesday and Closes the sale.
“What happens to Newt’s momentum if he picks up several states on Super Tuesday after factoring in the big Adelson super PAC?”
Right now, Newt is leading only in Georgia. If Romney wins both Arizona and Michigan and Santorum comes in second, those two will continue to fight it out on Super Tuesday. THere is simply no dynamic inplace to give Newt a boost if Romney wins both and Santorum comes in second. Santorum will still have a lot more delegates than Newt and those who want to stop Romney will be running out of time.
I think Santorum is likely to win Michigan and could win Arizona as well for reasons I posted earlier.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2851241/posts
What was the dynamic that helped Santorum win Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri?
Answer is, he performed well in the most recent debate before those contests, even though it happened a couple weeks before, and his two opponents Newt and Mitt were training fire on each other, leaving Santorum unscathed.
Which is exactly the position Newt is in now. Mitt and Santorum are sliming each other and Newt performed well, looking quite statesmanlike even, in the last debate before Super Tuesday. I think the best thing for Newt, acknowledging that it’s too late for him to win either AZ or MI, would be a split decision. It would keep Mitt and Rick at each other’s throats and would keep the race uncertain, without a clear frontrunner, leaving an open field.
Entering into a media environment without debates is also uncharted territory for this primary. So far, when the media has nothing to report on but speeches and interviews, it appears that Newt continues to retain the rhetorical advantage over his opponents in that arena. You have to imagine people who still haven’t made up their mind are still going to be looking for more media on the candidates. Without debates to report on, the media will be giving more coverage of speeches and interviews and they may play a more important role.
There are also of course always gaffes to watch out for. I don’t think we saw any major gaffes from the candidates this week that would tip the scales, but both Mitt and Santorum seem more gaffe-prone than Newt. And again those will the vacuum in media coverage left empty by no debates to report on.