I’ll tell you how Newt wins. The same way Clinton and Reagan won. The economy is in bad enough shape by the election that people simply want something different. That’s the same way any Republican is going to win. Newt, Rick, Mitt, whoever.
Look back at the polls from April 1992. Bush41 had a 10 pt lead on Clinton. I’m sure many dems were saying “how will Clinton win?”. Look back at the polls from the spring of 1980. Carter had a double digit lead over Reagan. Many were probably saying “how can Reagan win?”
Both of them won because eventually Americans had enough of the incumbent.
If we get to the fall and gas is $5 a gallon, inflation is on the rise, job growth has slowed, stagnated, or even started to go negative, Newt will have a very good chance to win, close to as good as anyone else.
Seriously, where do you think Obama will be if gas is at $5? Where do you think he’ll be if unemployment heads back up to 9% or more? If the market drops 10%? 20%? More?
Newt could well win on gas prices alone.
As for Rick sweeping the midwest. the latest MI poll vs Obama shows Obama with a 26 pt lead over Rick, the latest WI poll has him up by 11, and the latest PA poll has him up by 8, so I don’t know if I’d say he has an excellent chance of sweeping all of them.
But look, if gas goes up to the high $4, past $5, Newt will have a great chance of winning, as will any Republican.
A lot has changed since SC.