[TitansAFC]

-—”Newt supporters underestimate Rick Santorum and over estimate Newt in his ability to beat Romney and win this November.”-—

No such thing is happening. It is Santorum supporters who overestimate their candidate’s chances:

Here in IL, Rick will field no delegates.
He will field none in TN, either.
He is not on the ballot in IN
He is not on the ballot in DC
He is not on the ballot in VA
He will not field any delegates in ND
He is not on the ballot in 20% of OH

He could not even try to compete in the first big state of FL, and has already said as much about CA and NY.

The talking point from Rick supporters goes something like this: Through our sheer willpower, we will convince the states where Rick won’t field any delegates to just give them to Santorum anyway. Even though that never happens, it is only because nobody befire has been Rick Santorum!

Here’s the bad news: delegates are going to be pledged; and no matter how much you beg, they aren’t going to be assigned to Rick Santorum later just because you really want them to be. And really, in that above scenario, TN is the only one that assigns them later, anyway.

Rick CANNOT win the nomination. He CANNOT. There is no path to 1140+ delegates for him, period.

[hoosiermama]

Good analysis

[caww]

Rick CANNOT win the nomination. He CANNOT. There is no path to 1140+ delegates for him, period.

Your facts are presented to support that statement very well. I don't see any path for him either. His supporters just don't get it. The problem is will Santorum move into the Romney camp when the time comes....I'm afraid that he very well could if Romney promises him a place in his administration.....that is why he's in this....to see where he can advance in his political career.

On the other hand Newt has no other political ambitions...this is the "It" and he is free to give it his all and take down the strongholds strangling our country!!!!! Newt has the plan!...Newt has the will! ...Newt has the know how!

Go Newt GO Goooooo Newt!!!!!!

[Georgia Girl 2]

So true. Rick Santorum has zero chance to win the nomination. He will not win any of the big primaries.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Thanks for the thoughtful ping!!

[Lady Lucky]

Not only cannot, but should not win. In a couple of weeks we’ll see why. Public perception of Santorum is largely negative even without vetting; just his image and other superficial factors will ruin his chances. (Truth hurts, Santorum fans; deal with it.) When his opponents begin to examine the details of his career, he will sink like a stone.

[Mountain Mary]

If Mittens is the nominee, I’m going to bed until Nov.4.

[xzins]

Capitalfreepress comes to a different conclusion. They say that both Gingrich and Santorum have plenty of room to capture sufficient delegates to win the nomination.

Good. My intent is to keep the nomination from Romney.

Conclusion

In summary, it appears as if in a worst case scenario for Santorum, his ballot access problems will cost him a shot at up to 111 delegates. In a best case scenario where his challenge to ballot status in Indiana succeeds and he could convince other candidates delegates to support him in Illinois, he would only be missing out on 74 delegates.

All of this assumes of course that Santorum would win every delegate in all of these states. Given the proportional awarding of the delegates in many of these states, it is virtually impossible that he would have done that anyways. Being ineligible for the 49 delegates of Virigina constitutes at worst almost half the damage to Santorum’s delegate winning prospects. However, if he wouldn’t have won there anyways, he really is losing very few delegates from not being on the ballot.

Of the 1144 delegates Santorum would need to become the nominee, not being eligible for all of the delegates he could be certainly won’t help him, but the number of delegates he can’t receive are far from enough to stop him from being the nominee. If he gains momentum and continues to win states, he will have no problem amassing enough delegates to win.

[katiedidit1]

Rick Santorum will NEVER win the GOP nomination. The voters will face a wake up call when he is vetted and the free pass ends.
Rick is NO fiscal conservative! just a small part of his votes would make any true anti establishment conservative cringe.
Immigration
Voted against increasing the number of immigration investigators
Voted to allow illegal immigrants to receive the earned income credit before becoming citizens
Voted to give SSI benefits to legal aliens.
Voted to give welfare benefits to naturalized citizens without regard to to the earnings of their sponsors.
Voted against hiring an additional 1,000 border partrol agents, paid for by reductions in state grants.

Taxes
Voted against a flat tax.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for Medicare prescription drugs
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to fund health insurance subsidies for small businesses.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an $8 billion increase in child healh insurance.
Voted to increase tobacco taxes to pay for an increase in NIH funding.
Voted twice for internet taxes.
Voted to allow gas tax revenues to be used to subsidize Amtrak.
Voted to strike marriage penalty tax relief and instead provide fines on tobacco companies.
Voted against repealing the Clinton 4.3 cent gas tax increase.
Voted to increase taxes by $2.3 billion to pay for an Amtrak trust fund.
Voted to allow welfare to a minor who had a child out of wedlock and who resided with an adult who was on welfare within the previous two years.
Voted to increase taxes by $9.4 billion to pay for a $9.4 billion increase in student loans.
Voted to say that AMT patch is more important than capital gains and dividend relief.

Welfare
Voted against food stamp reform
Voted against Medicaid reform
Voted against TANF reform
Voted to increase the Social Services Block Grant from $1 billion to $2 billion
Voted to increase the FHA loan from $170,000 to $197,000. Also opposed increasing GNMA guaranty from 6 basis points to 12.
Voted for $2 billion for low income heating assistance.