Hi Sukhoi!
Great post.
So, what is your opinion on the French sharing the Rafale technology with the Chicoms eventually?
Also, will they sell to the Pakistanis?
Keep the good work up!
Firstly, it’s unlikely that the Pakis will be able to buy the Rafale since its very expensive for their pockets and secondly, Indian pressure would be enormous.
There are factors which hinder a sale of the Rafale to China-
1. The EU embargo is still officially in place and even if it falls, selling overtly offensive systems to Beijing would provoke heavy domestic and regional European opposition.
2. Hawking such a system to the Chicoms will result to France running the risk of alienating a number of pro-Western Asian powers among them- India, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Australia (in addition to Japan), all of which have strong defense ties with Paris. I’m willing to take a calculated bet and say that a successful Rafale deal in India could open the floodgates in Malaysia and possibly Vietnam, which is looking at non-Russian fighters.
3. Does China really need technology from a fighter like the Rafale or Eurofighter, both are at the end of the day 4.5 generation aircraft? The Chinese have progressed to 5th gen aircraft and are rationalising their current fleet around the J-11 and J-10 (ala. the US F-15/F-16).
HOWEVER that doesn’t mean that the French or the rest of Europe wouldn’t want to sell to China-that will very likely happen in this decade.